After a dominant win in their opener, USA are back in action at the Women’s World Cup, with the match against the Netherlands making my article for favorite betting props on July 26 and 27.
The Dutch were also good in their 1-0 victory over Portugal, but I do expect the USA to take full control of Group E with a slim win on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, my other play comes from Thursday’s final fixture between Argentina and South Africa, where the South American country should get back on track with a win.
The lack of goals has been the story of the tournament so far, leading to 16-of-21 falling under the betting total. However, these matches should start to open up as we get deeper into the group stage.
World Cup Picks – USA vs Netherlands & Argentina vs South Africa
USA vs Netherlands – 0.5u on USA Win by Exactly 1 Goal (+185) | 0.5u USA Win by Exactly 2 Goals (+330 via DraftKings)
The only negative you can point to in the United States' win over Vietnam would be the lack of finishing, but head coach Vlatko Andonovski has to be happy with creating 4.8 xG on 10 big scoring chances.
Meanwhile, Andonovski’s side didn’t allow a single shot in the commanding triumph.
The Dutch can also be satisfied with their first game at the competition. In the win over Portugal, the Netherlands posted a +1.6 xGDiff and held the Portuguese to just one shot on target.
A big question is whether the Orange Lionesses are ready for the step up in competition. If you go by recent history, I feel they will fall short again against the elite competition.
Over the last two years, the Dutch have failed to pick up a result against Germany, England and a French squad that won the xG battle by +4.0 at the Euros last summer.
If there is some hope for them, this American team typically does not blow out their opponents, with eight of their last 12 wins against teams that have qualified for this World Cup coming by two or fewer goals. If you remove the lesser opponents of New Zealand and Vietnam, that percentage grows to 89% of wins happening by no more than two.
I’m choosing to split my unit here between the USWNT winning by exactly one goal (+185) and by exactly two goals (+330), but I think they will be too much for the Orange Lionesses.
Argentina vs South Africa – Argentina Win to Nil (+200 via bet365)
After both dropping their first games, these two countries should be going all out for a win in this one. However, I do think Argentina will be able to pick up three points against South Africa.
The one thing that sticks out when La Albiceleste wins a match is that they usually do not allow their opponents to find the back of the net.
Over the last 10 victories, Argentina win to nil has cashed in nine of those matches, which includes all five wins this year.
This is also the same side that only allowed 0.4 xG and no big scoring chances in the loss to Italy.
Meanwhile, South Africa did register 1.3 xG and scored in the loss to Sweden, but this is still the team that failed to score in the pre-tournament friendly to Botswana (150th in the FIFA Rankings).
Banyana Banyana boast two strikers who play abroad in Thembi Kgatiana (Racing Louisville) and Noxolo Cesane (Stade de Reims). Even with the duo, I still don’t trust them to be able to create consistent chances.
