Young Boys vs Crvena Zvezda Odds
| Young Boys Odds | +110 |
| Crvena Zvezda Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
In a battle now for a spot in the Europa League knockout round, Crvena Zvezda travel to Switzerland for a crucial clash with Young Boys.
Young Boys have been throughly dominated by both Manchester City and RB Leipzig in this competition, but they got a crucial 2-2 draw with Belgrade in Serbia in their previous meeting. They are atop the Swiss Super League table, but they have been drastically over-perf0rming domestically and that negative regression may catch up with them on Tuesday.
Red Star are in flying form in Serbia, winning seven of their last eight matches, but they still sit in second behind their dreaded rivals Partizan Belgrade. They weren't terrible against RB Leipzig in their last two Champions League matches, which is an encouraging sign, but everything comes down to this match against Young Boys on Tuesday.
Here is my Young Boys vs Crvena Zvezda prediction.
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Young Boys
Young Boys will typically play out of a 4-4-2 diamond, which is designed to clog up the middle of the pitch and make it difficult for opponents to create overloads there. The problem with this shape is that because it's now with the wide midfielders playing closer towards the middle of the pitch, it puts a reliance on the fullbacks to defend 1 v 1 out wide. Their 4-4-2 diamond is designed to play in transition and is actually a similar formation to what Ole Gunnar Solskjær used to great success with Manchester United for a very long time.
You can get away with that playing in the Swiss Super League, but it was very clear in the first meeting that they were struggling defending in those wide areas.
For whatever reason, Young Boys were playing an incredibly high line against Crvena and should have been punished multiple times, but they were saved by offsides or some poor finishing. With them being at home, I expect them to try and control a majority of the possession, so the issues will be once they lose the ball how will they cope with the pace Red Star Belgrade have in transition.
Additionally, Young Boys are over-performing drastically in the Swiss Super League right now, as their goal differential is +1.22 per 90 minutes, but their xG differential is just +0.06.
Crvena Zvezda
Here is the problem that Red Star Belgrade have run into against Manchester City and RB Leipzig. They are so used to dominating possession in the Serbian league that they’ve been forced to play a 5-3-2 to allow them to be more direct rather than the typical build out of the back team they are domestically.
In the first meeting against Young Boys, they were able to play their typical 4-2-3-1 formation and were the far better team in the match. The final expected goals tally ended up 2.6 to 2.6, but Young Boys had a penalty for a soft hand ball and Red Star had two goals ruled out due to offsides, one of which was by the length of a toe.
Crvena are a team that can hit you pretty effectively and quickly in transition, which Young Boys found out the hard way. Belgrade constantly were making runs off the last line of defense with Osman Bukari and Cherif Ndiaye.
Red Star Belgrade have been dominant domestically this season and continuing to put up some of the most absurd expected goals numbers in Europe. Through about half of the Serbian SuperLiga’s season they are averaging 2.63 xG per 90 minutes, while only allowing 1.02 xG.
Young Boys vs Crvena Zvezda
Prediction
From both a data and tactical perspective I really don't see how Young Boys should be favored in this match.
Even though the xG battle was even in the previous match between these two, Crvena were by far the better side, as Young Boys were aided by a penalty and a lot of their big chances were created after they went up 2-1.
If they are going to play a high defensive line again, Red Star are going to punish them time and time again in transition, while Young Boys are also going to have a hard time playing through the middle of the pitch like they want to.
I have Red Star Belgrade projected as a favorite on the road in Switzerland, so I love the value on them +0.5 at -116.
