Young Boys vs Man City Odds
| Young Boys Odds | +1400 |
| Manchester City Odds | -600 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
The 2022/2023 Swiss Super League Champion Young Boys will host Manchester City for the first time in history this Wednesday in the Champions League.
Young Boys currently sit second in the Swiss Super League, just two points behind the leaders with a game in hand. They have only lost two matches so far this season and are undefeated in their last four in all competitions. Currently third in the Champions League Group G, Young Boys need to start picking up points if they want to have any chance of advancing to the knockout rounds.
Pep Guardiola and Manchester City are coming off a 2-1 win over Brighton this past weekend. City have picked up right where they left off after their treble winning season just a year ago, currently sitting second in the league and winning both of their group matches so far.
Let’s see how Young Boys will deal with hosting the European giant in Manchester City and how I see this match playing out.
Young Boys
Young Boys have had a very successful opening couple of months to the season. They have scored 20 goals so far and have only conceded a league-leading 10 goals in their first ten matches of the season.
They have not yet found that same success in their Champions League campaign, losing 3-1 to RB Leipzig and then conceding an 88th-minute equalizer to Red Star Belgrade in their last match. They are currently third in the group and have no easy task hosting the treble winners from last season.
Wicky and Young Boys tend to play four at the back and dominate possession throughout their matches. They are also an elite pressing side in Switzerland with an incredible 8.8 PPDA. However, that is against Swiss Super League opposition, not Manchester City.
I anticipate that Young Boys will set up a similar way to how they played RB Leipzig, where they played a 5-3-2 formation. In that Leipzig match, however, they controlled the line share of possession, but that is how Leipzig play and they were more than comfortable playing on the counterattack. Manchester City will not do this.
Pep and his men will be controlling the vast majority of possession in this match while they try to open the YB defense that has had some issues so far. They have conceded 2.6 xG in their two group stage matches so far, so I trust that they will be playing with 11 men behind the ball for the majority of the match and hopefully find some chances on the break.
Man City
For the first time in almost a year, Manchester City have looked very beatable over the past month. During Rodri’s three match ban, City lost all three matches. Granted, two of those matches were Newcastle and Arsenal, so not easy opposition by any means, but it just goes to show how vital Rodri is to this midfield.
In the two matches Rodri has played in recently, City were 3-1 winners over RB Leipzig and 2-1 winners over Brighton. These are two very good wins over two well-organized teams who have been playing well. However, there have been some concerns about the chances that City have been creating.
In four of their last five matches, their xG has been 1.3, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.8. This is very uncharacteristic from this side who has dominated Europe for the last seven seasons. They have been able to get away with it because of the sheer quality of every single man on the pitch, but it is a reason for concern.
An area where they are not concerned is defensively, because they have genuinely been amazing at the back. The highest xG they have conceded this season is 1.4 and they have conceded less than 1.0 xG in 10 of their 12 matches this season. That is an unbelievable accomplishment in the Premier League and so Young Boys may not seem like their biggest test.
We have seen it before that when teams defend with 11 men behind the ball it can be a challenge for teams to break them down. Now I do not see this being such a big problem because of how good of a buildup team Manchester City is, but it is still difficult when a team is defending for their lives.
Young Boys vs Man City
Prediction
Manchester City are going to control this match and unless the miraculous happens, they are going to win this match. The question is how many they will score and if Young Boys will be able to answer in any way against Pep’s men.
I see this being somewhat of a low-scoring affair because of the way that I anticipate Young Boys will play. If they do not play this way and try to press Manchester City then they are in for a long 90 minutes.
I think that Manchester City are too good defensively and will be controlling the tempo of the entire match. I can’t see Young Boys getting much of anything going forward, which is why I see value on both teams to score – no.
Given the uncertainty of how both sides will set up their teams in this match, I don’t feel comfortable taking a spread or total, which is why I like this play.
