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Dimitrov vs. Schwartzman Odds
| Dimitrov Odds | -152 |
| Schwartzman Odds | +126 |
| Over/Under | 37.5 |
| Time | 5 am ET |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Grigor Dimitrov surrendered only three games to Diego Schwartzman at the Madrid Masters a few weeks ago. This extended his head-to-head lead over the Argentine to 3-1 and leveled their battles on clay at 1-1.
En route to their third-round matchup, they have had very different results to arrive here, but this match will be played on fine margins.
Let's dive into this match.
Path to the Third Round
Dimitrov has been on fire in Paris, blowing away his competition. He has come through in straight sets while dropping only three and seven games in his first and second round respectively. Remarkably enough, he has not dropped serve through six sets on clay.
On the other hand, Diego Schwartzman had to come from two sets down to find his way through the Spaniard Jaume Munar. Before that, he showed his vulnerability while dropping a set 1-6 to the world No. 228.
Dimitrov Stays Hot
Taking out Dimitrov's matchups against the top-ranked clay courter Stefanos Tsitsipas (based on Elo-Ratings), he is 10-1 on the surface this year and has won 14 straight sets going back to Barcelona.
Dimitrov has showcased his world-class athleticism and ability to work the point to dominate on clay. He has consistently found ways to turn defense into offense on the return and remain on the front foot during service games.
Throughout the European clay court season, Dimitrov has reminded us why he was once ranked in the top three.
Schwartzman Finding His Way Through
Wins never come easy for Diego with his grinding style of play. Without major weapons on his serve, he finds himself in extended rallies frequently. However, the consistency and depth he produces off the ground in addition to his determination makes up for his lack of weapons.
Schwartzman is susceptible to extreme dips in level. He may have the best timing off the ground in the world, but when his timing fluctuates, he does not have much to fall back on. Just from the past few weeks, this is evident in his 1-6 dropped set to Andrey Kuznetsov and 1-6, 6-7 defeat to Marcos Giron.
Despite his dips at times, Schwartzman has found a way to keep on winning and he continues to produce results like the top 20 player he is.
Matchup Comparison
Earlier this month, Dimitrov embarrassed Schwartzman in Madrid with a 6-0, 6-3 victory. Although the altitude in Madrid favors Grigor, Schwartzman was unable to present any sort of challenge. Dimitrov played on the front foot the entire match, hitting through the remarkable movement of Schwartzman with ease.
When Dimitrov's shots are firing, it is unlikely that Diego will be able to find an answer to slow him down. Dimitrov's tennis IQ, athleticism, and angles that he creates showed that he possesses the perfect combination to hit through Schwartzman's defense.
Betting Value
Predicting a repeat showing of Madrid would be far-fetched, but I do expect Dimitrov to once again find his way through Schwartzman. Even though these courts return to Schwartzman's preference, Dimitrov is simply playing tennis at a higher level.
If Schwartzman can't find ways to get on the attack, he will be in for a long day of running.
I'd rather not mess around with spreads. I'll happily take Dimitrov outright.
Pick: Grigor Dimitrov ML (-142)
