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We'll continue with the second round of the French Open on Thursday, and I'm targeting two matches for my best bets.
The first includes Australian Alex de Minaur, who is facing off against Argentina's Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
The second features the Cinderella of the French Open thus far, as Brazil's Thiago Seyboth Wild looks to extend his run against Argentina's Guido Pella.
Dive in below for both of my best bets!
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French Open Odds & Picks
Alex de Minaur (-130) vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (+110)
5 a.m. ET
Let’s get this out of the way: I’m a huge de Minaur fan. I’ve been raving about the Aussie since he first popped up consistently on the tour, and when he’s at his best, he’s extremely capable of being a consistent top 10-to-15 player.
But, in this particular spot I’m not going to back the Aussie. Instead, I’m going to target the total, as I think this will be a close, potential five-set match.
First, let’s start with Etcheverry, who has an Elo rank of 36 on clay, which is 50 spots higher than his opponent. He also reached the final of a 250 clay court tournament in Houston in April before challenging Novak Djokovic in Rome a few weeks later.
Etcheverry doesn’t overpower you and doesn’t have a massive serve, but he picks his spots effectively. He’s certainly capable of making a string of errors, though, and owns a middle of the pack “Under Pressure Rating” (51st) on clay.
On the flip side, de Minaur has done next to nothing during this clay season. His best win was against Andy Murray in Monte Carlo, and before his match against Ilya Ivashka in the first round of the French Open, he hadn’t competed since his loss to Marton Fucsovics in Rome.
But de Minaur is one of the best returners on Tour right now, owning the eighth-best Return Rating on all surfaces and the 16th-best Return Rating on clay over the last 52 weeks.
Regardless of the surface and location, he’s capable of putting immense pressure on Etcheverry.
These two have never faced each other, and neither has had much previous success at Roland Garros.
Etcheverry barely even had to play a first-round match — Jack Draper retired after the first set — so he’ll be well rested and ready for his greatest opportunity to do damage in a major.
Ultimately, I think this will be a long match, as both players take a set or two to feel out their opponent. Etcheverry has the surface advantage, but de Minaur has a significant talent edge, will have his fair share of break opportunities and is a player that will grind out matches despite his weaknesses.
Pick: Over 37.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
Thiago Seyboth Wild (-270) vs Guido Pella (+215)
7:30 a.m. ET
Back in February, Pella recorded his first win on the ATP Tour in 16 months due to a knee injury.
Meanwhile, his opponent – Seyboth Wild – is coming off the biggest victory of his career, a five-set stunner against Daniil Medvedev.
If you look at the rankings of the two – Pella is 423rd in the world and Seyboth Wild is inside the top 200 – they clearly favor the Brazilian.
But dive a little deeper into this matchup and it shows we’re getting great value on Pella.
The Argentine’s best surface is clay, as he’s won his only ATP title on the surface and owns a career winning percentage of 51.6%.
Back in 2019, Pella was 10th in Elo Rating on clay. Before the start of the French Open, he sat in the top 75 in the same ratings, while Seyboth Wild checked in at 94th.
Even more importantly, it will be incredibly tough for Seyboth Wild to match the energy and effort he put forth in his monster victory against one of the best players in the world.
I love fading players coming off of career victories, and that’s even more of a factor here given Seyboth Wild’s inexperience. The Brazilian never played a Roland Garros main draw match before his duel with Medvedev, and had never previously even won a qualifying match at the event.
Yes, Pella just played a grueling five-setter against Quentin Halys, but he’s 33-years old and has been playing in this event since 2012. In other words, he has the experience Seyboth Wild doesn't have.
And by the way, we don’t even need Pella to win this match. He just needs to cover 5.5.
If you're looking for a moneyline look however, +215 is not a bad number.
