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Editor's Note: Nick Kyrgios withdrew from his match against David Goffin after this article was published.
The dog days of the summer are here, and that means it's tennis' time to shine.
Wimbledon is back, and even though Novak Djokovic is the heavy favorite, there's plenty of betting value across the board.
It all starts in the first round, and I have two picks I'm targeting on Monday in London.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds, Picks
Nick Kyrgios (-162) vs David Goffin (+134)
9:15 a.m. ET
The biggest mystery entering Wimbledon is Nick Kyrgios. The Aussie reached his first Grand Slam final in London in 2022, but this season Kyrgios has played just one match (two sets) due to an injury.
Meanwhile, his opponent David Goffin also had a successful Wimbledon last year, reaching the quarterfinals before losing to Cam Norrie in five sets.
The 32-year old hasn’t been much of a factor during the 2023 grass season, losing in the first round of the Libema Open in the Netherlands before falling in the round of 16 of a Challenger event.
But, the good news is Goffin has had more career success at the Championships than any other major tournament (two quarterfinal appearances).
I expect Kyrgios to play a focused match, given that this is a major and he proved to himself last year that he’s at the very least capable of having a shot at winning this tournament.
But ultimately, Kyrgios’ lack of form and limited match time this season will greatly impact the result.
And if this one is close — as I’m predicting — it’s entirely possible Kyrgios’ fitness just isn’t there for a full four or five-set match.
History says Kyrgios should cruise (he has a 3-1 advantage on Goffin head-to-head); however, their last match came in 2017 and circumstances are certainly different this time around.
It's smart to back Goffin +2.5, but taking a flier on the veteran to win this match isn’t a bad pick either.
Pick: David Goffin +2.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
Dan Evans (-125) vs Quentin Halys (+108)
10:30 a.m. ET
It’s been a strange road in 2023 for Dan Evans, who lost six straight matches from the end of January to mid-March before beating Karen Khachanov and Francisco Cerundolo in Barcelona.
Since then, Evans is back to his streaky ways, winning just one of five matches, including just a single victory during the grass season (a Challenger Tour win over James McCabe).
In fact, Evans is just 8-16 this season overall and owns just two top-40 victories.
Meanwhile, his opponent Quentin Halys has shown flashes this season. He played a really solid match against Novak Djokovic to start the season, reached the round of 16 in Miami and appeared in the semis in Estoril.
Based upon these first few paragraphs, it may seem like I’m leaning towards the Frenchmen when actually I’m favoring the Brit in this spot.
Listen, this is Evans’ home tournament. He’s never performed particularly well in this event (three third round appearances), but if there’s any spot for him to bounce back and turn his season around, this is it.
I’m also very concerned about Halys’ lack of experience on grass courts — he’s just 2-3 overall at the ATP level and hasn’t played a single grass court match this season.
While Halys’ serve is his biggest weapon, Evans is 20th on tour in Return Rating over the last 52 weeks. Evans has an advantage from the baseline, so if he's able to limit Halys’ ability to earn quick points via serve, this match favors the Brit way more than the line currently indicates.
Form is important, but it’s not the end all be all, especially in this spot. Back Evans here.
