We're moving on to the third round of Wimbledon from the All England Club on Friday, and we've got two of the top 15 players in the world in action early on.
I'll be looking to fade both of them, unsurprisingly, with two incredibly effective grass-court players who aren't too far behind these big names in the rankings.
Here are my Wimbledon predictions for Paul – Bublik and Struff – Medvedev.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Predictions
Tommy Paul (-215) vs Alexander Bublik (+170)
6 a.m. ET
It was very evident in his win over Otto Virtanen on Wednesday that Tommy Paul simply wasn't the stronger player on grass.
Yes, the American has found some life on this surface in the past three seasons with just 10 losses in 34 matches, and this season he's taken home a title on the turf prior to making this run to the third round at Wimbledon.
Paul survives off his world-class defense, but his topspin forehand still bounces up into far too high of a position to limit offense against power players. Against Alexander Bublik, who can boom his serve just like Virtanen and mix in some expert slicing and net play, I think Paul will be in trouble.
The two have played four close matches against one another in their careers, and though Bublik has just one win in the head-to-head, it did come in qualifying for Queen's Club on grass five years ago. He's absolutely loved this surface over the years, going 18-7 from 2022-23 until hitting a bit of a wall this season.
This surface is where Bublik made a name for himself back at Newport in 2019 and I think the story will continue with a big run at Wimbledon. He should be able to bring plenty of points to the net with his creativity and make Paul uncomfortable on a surface which really doesn't totally play to his strengths.
Pick: Bublik ML (+170 via DraftKings)
Jan-Lennard Struff (+145) vs. Daniil Medvedev (-180)
8 a.m. ET
It's hard to call Daniil Medvedev a hardcourt specialist given he's still produced a high level away from those surfaces over the years, but grass isn't really a surface where he's been the unstoppable force we've come to know and love.
He's twice lost to Roberto Bautista Agut on grass over the last three years, lost to qualifier Tim Van Rijthoven in the Halle final two seasons ago and has fallen to the likes of Adrian Mannarino, Hubert Hurkacz and Zizhen Zhang on the turf in recent years.
One other man who did get him on a grass court is Jan-Lennard Struff, whose serve-and-volley skills have made him a very difficult opponent to play on grass through the years. It's hard to read too far into his career record given he was a late bloomer at the age of 28 back in 2018 before falling into a multi-year rut, but when he's been on he's been a force on slick courts.
That leads me to believe he can find a way through Medvedev here, who played a shockingly-close first round match against Alexandre Muller in the second round and lost to Zhang in the second round of his grass-court tune-up after nearly fumbling away his match versus Nuno Borges.
Struff is a real problem, and anything less than Medvedev's best will have him in trouble.
Pick: Struff ML (+145 via DraftKings)
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