Alexander Zverev vs. Matteo Berrettini
| Zverev Odds | -230 |
| Berrettini Odds | +182 |
| Over/Under | 23.5 |
| Time | Sunday, 7 a.m. ET |
| Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. | |
Though Zverev and Berrettini have had far different trajectories throughout the course of the season, the duo has put together two of the best seasons on tour.
The Italian excelled in the first half of the year, winning titles in Belgrade and at the Queen's Club Championships in addition to a quarterfinals berth at the French Open and a final appearance at Wimbledon.
Zverev followed up with a massive second half of the year, stringing together an Olympic title in addition to a US Open semifinal, a Masters title in Cincinnati and another in Vienna.
Though the German comes into this match in better form, he's only listed as a -230 favorite.
Here's how each player can succeed in the match and where I see value.
How Zverev Wins
At this point, there is no questioning that Zverev will be near the top of this sport for a solid period of time.
His consistency over the last four months is enough to tell you that, and yet there is still so much room for growth on the service front. With 4.8 double faults per match in the last 52 weeks, Zverev's second serve still limits him.
He has one of the best first serves in the game, one of the best backhands in the game, a high-level forehand and a serviceable net game, but his second serve has still proven to be a liability amidst all of his success.
Berrettini isn't going to offer a high number of break chances, so there will be pressure on Zverev to avoid tight service games. If he can do that, he has a major advantage on the ground that should allow him to thrive.
Zverev will dominate backhand-to-backhand rallies, as Berrettini will frequently opt to just slice off of his backhand wing in those situations. Though he'll be dealing with a major forehand, Zverev will have no problem absorbing the pace that Berrettini will provide.
Steady holds will offer Zverev a smooth route to domination.
How Berrettini Wins
With three losses in his last seven matches, Berrettini isn't in the best of form. The easiest way to alleviate pressure will be to serve well and attack off of the first ball behind his massive forehand.
The limitations of that method were on display in Vienna, however, where Carlos Alcaraz was able to defeat Berrettini. Much like Zverev, Alcaraz excels from the baseline and was able to soak up Berrettini's forehand while exploiting his backhand.
Berrettini has been able to cause problems for Zverev in the past when he's firing at his absolute best, but that is what it's going to take.
He'll also have to hope that the indoor hard court surface in Turin plays at a fast pace that is more conducive to players that emphasize a big serve and power, but indoor hard courts on tour have been playing much slower as of late.
Additionally, he will be playing in his home country, so if the crowd is anything like it was for Lorenzo Musetti in Milan, it might be able to provide a small boost.
Betting Pick
Berrettini simply hasn't shown me anything of late to believe that he'll be able to contend with Zverev. He hasn't gotten past the quarterfinals of any tournament since Wimbledon and his best weapons haven't been firing.
Barring the courts in Turin proving to be lightning fast, Zverev has a massive advantage in form and conditions, so it is going to take a major effort from Berrettini to upset the world number three.
Zverev will be able to take advantage of extended rallies, and the biggest threat to victory in this matchup is himself. If he can avoid collapses on serve and bouts with tightness, he should be able to comfortably get by the Italian playing at home.
Pick: Zverev -2.5 -120
