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Alexander Zverev vs. Sebastian Baez Odds
| Zverev Odds | -600 |
| Baez Odds | +425 |
| Total | 30.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Alexander Zverev knows the road ahead. In order to win this wide-open Grand Slam, he must take out Carlos Alcaraz — who sits on the other side of his quarter — then likely either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal. After that, he'll still need to play and win his first-ever final at this level.
With all of this to think about, could the World No. 3 be looking past his second-round opponent, Sebastian Baez?
Let's take a closer look at this one.
Zverev Eyeing First Grand Slam Title
Zverev has quietly had an incredible season. He's lost nine times, but he's also reached the quarters of every Masters 1000 — with the exception of Indian Wells. He was a semifinalist at two of the three clay-court Masters and lost to Alcaraz in the Madrid final.
The story here with Zverev is the same one it's been for years now. There's much that has been expected of the 25-year-old — who has one of the biggest games around — but the German has yet to win that first Grand Slam that has always felt inevitable.
The French Open is probably the best place for him to get it done. He's done some of his best work on the clay over his career and stands at 25-8 on the surface since the start of 2021.
He was a semifinalist at Roland Garros last year — losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in an epic five-set match — and he's twice been to the quarters.
His game is one that is frankly suited for faster conditions, but Zverev is someone who has always felt comfortable on the clay, considering how much he played on the dirt at a young age.
His big serve and massive backhand frequently get him out of trouble, and he always seems to find himself in holes with his unforced errors and double faults.
Don't Underestimate Baez
For the casual tennis bettors out there who may not know Baez, you ought to tune into this one to watch some special tennis.
The young Argentine was seemingly allergic to losing last year, taking home a whopping six titles on the ATP Challenger Tour and amassing a 56-16 record at all levels. This season, he's managed to parlay that success into meaningful results.
Baez failed to capture his maiden title in Santiago in late February — when he lost in a three-set heartbreaker to Pedro Martinez. But just a couple of months later, he'd make up for it with a sensational win in Estoril, which included victories over Marin Cilic, Richard Gasquet, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Frances Tiafoe.
Baez is an undersized player, and because of this, he can struggle on serve. What he doesn't bring in that department, though, he more than makes up for it on the forehand wing. The 21-year-old can hang with the best of them from the baseline and has real put-away power off that forehand wing.
He also seems to have incredible instincts under pressure for someone his age. That will do him well in the coming years.
Simply put, this kid is very special and will be around for a while. He will likely gobble up clay-court trophies and make a Roland Garros semifinal one day.
Betting Value
These two just met in Rome, and boy did they play a close match. Baez would wind up falling in straight sets, but he was only broken once by Zverev.
The match went to a tiebreaker in the first set, which saw Zverev waste four set points before eventually taking it 8-7.
In the second set, he would win by breaking at 4-3 and serving it out with ease.
Baez wound up winning more points on serve than Zverev, who won just 72% compared to the youngster's 80%. Baez was unable to generate a break point, but he was incredibly competitive in this one and only managed to face one break point himself.
The margins are far too thin for Zverev to be a favorite of this magnitude. I'm going to back Baez to win a set here.
Pick: Baez +2.5 Sets (-105)
