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Rublev vs. Cilic Odds
| Rublev Odds | -150 |
| Cilic Odds | +120 |
| Total | 39.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Time | 10:00 a.m. ET |
| Odds via Caesars. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Andrey Rublev is in his second-career quarterfinal at Roland Garros, and he'll draw grizzled veteran Marin Cilic, who's on one of the runs of his career.
The Croat has dropped just one set to this point — to Marton Fucsovics — and looks to be a very dangerous player coming off of his latest win.
Oddsmakers are surely respecting Cilic with this line, but should they be more respectful? Let's take a look at this one.
Rublev Hasn't Performed When It's Mattered Most
I'm about to say some bad things about Rublev, so allow me to qualify those with some highlights. After all, Rublev may not be my pick to win this match, but he's still a very good tennis player.
The Russian has won three titles already in 2022 — one indoors in Marseille, one on an outdoor hardcourt in Dubai and then one on the clay in Belgrade. He's 29-7 on the season, and is now 11-3 on the clay.
Despite all this success, it's hard to say Rublev is flashing the dominant form he displayed during his breakthrough to the top of the men's game in 2020.
For starters, his serve has been a big issue going on a year and change now, and his huge offensive game has been tamed by some other names eager to achieve results at the highest levels.
For all Rublev has done at this year's smaller tournaments, he had a pathetic showing at the three clay-court Masters tournaments — at least for his standards.
He crashed out of Monte Carlo — where he's reached the final before — in just his second match.
He was dispatched by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals of Madrid.
He failed to win a match in Rome, losing to the lowly Filip Krajinovic.
That is without mentioning he fumbled away a chance to reach the final at Indian Wells against Taylor Fritz, and was hit off the court by Nick Kyrgios in his first match in Miami.
Rublev has dominated some of the smaller events, but hasn't shown up when it counts. He was knocked out of the Australian Open in just the third round by none other than Cilic, and is looking at his first really meaningful result of the season.
Can Cilic Stay on Fire?
When the French Open draw came out, everyone talked about Quarter 4. With the clay-averse Daniil Medvedev headlining the group, there were a multitude of possibilities as to what could happen.
Perhaps it was Miomir Kecmanovic's time to shine. Maybe Jannik Sinner could finally reach that first Grand Slam semifinal. Rublev had a real chance to reach the final, too.
No one wanted to talk about Cilic, who has quietly gone about his business over the last six or seven months in a very professional manner. The Croat is healthy and has been competing incredibly hard, searching for another opportunity to achieve a massive result.
The aging veteran has taken full advantage of this soft draw, racing to the fourth round with convincing victories. Then came Medvedev, who had seemed to figure out clay and drew a boatload of money after he opened at -170, closing better than -300.
Cilic went on to demolish Medvedev in three sets, crushing winners down the line from both wings and serving his face off. This man has won a Grand Slam before, and he's playing like it can happen again.
Betting Value
Cilic has to be your man here. He's been playing incredibly convincing tennis, taking the racket out of his opponents' hands with his massive serves and forehands.
I want to take you back to Rublev's last match against Sinner, too. The Russian was absolutely annihilated by the young Italian in the first set, succumbing to an onslaught of massive serves and forehands.
Rublev, who has already had issues creating offense on the clay, was powerless. It was only when Sinner injured his knee midway through the second set that the Russian was able to gain a foothold in the match.
We should see a replay on Wednesday. Cilic has the firepower to keep Rublev on his heels, and he demonstrated a tremendous return game against the big serve of Medvedev last match.
He's playing flawless tennis and landing an insane amount of first serves. He can't — and won't — be stopped in this one.
Pick: Cilic +120
