Andy Murray vs. Carlos Alcaraz
| Murray Odds | -140 |
| Alcaraz Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 |
| Time | Wednesday, 11:30 a.m. ET |
| Odds via BetMGM. | |
Match time is subject to change. Read here for tips on watching tennis.
Given the strength of the draw at the Erste Bank Open, it's no surprise that yet another premier matchup has arrived on Wednesday's slate of tennis.
The rematch of the Indian Wells battle between Andy Murray and Carlos Alcaraz is a fascinating one. Earlier this month, Alcaraz was a -150 favorite, but he comes into the second match as a +110 underdog.
When these two faced off in California, Murray didn't have a defining win on the season. After defeating the talented teenager, the victory served as a big moment for the former world number one.
Since then, he's gone on to beat world number 10 Hubert Hurkacz, win a near-four hour marathon against Frances Tiafoe and push the 16th ranked Diego Schwartzman for all he could give.
Third time's a charm 🤩@andy_murray defeats Hurkacz 6-4 6-7 6-3 in their third meeting this year, and gets his first Top 20 win of the season!@ErsteBankOpenpic.twitter.com/zXWLLEPNBp
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 25, 2021
A very high-level version of Murray is here to stay, but Alcaraz is well-equipped to deal with Murray's style. The Brit likes to take a cautiously aggressive approach, excelling on the counter-attack and being patient in rallies.
Alcaraz takes a different approach, looking for attacking opportunities at all times. With easy power off of both wings, Alcaraz should theoretically enjoy the time and space that Murray will give him, but Murray is so talented at defending on the move that he'll force Alcaraz to hit multiple winners each point.
It's the story that doomed Alcaraz in Indian Wells, where he was just a bit loose, and it cost him.
Electrifying ⚡
The moment @andy_murray finished off a classic comeback against hard-charging Carlos Alcaraz. #BNPPO21pic.twitter.com/elgt7MHmWv
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 10, 2021
The indoor hard courts of Vienna suit Murray a touch more than Alcaraz. Murray has a career 78% win rate on indoor hard courts, and an even better 100% win rate in Vienna. He's won two titles at the tournament and has never lost a match.
Alacaraz has only played two matches on an indoor hard court surface, with a win against Dan Evans on Monday and a loss against Tallon Griekspoor earlier in the year.
Vienna's courts are slow for an indoor hard court, which should be preferable for a player that grew up on and excels on clay, but the courts are playing a touch faster than usual.
Alcaraz has shown that he's more than comfortable on hard courts, reaching the quarterfinals at the US Open and performing well when given the opportunity, but if this match was on clay, he'd be a heavy favorite.
Due to the fact that Murray is so comfortable in Vienna, the quality form and fitness that he's showing and Alcaraz's inexperience on the surface, it makes sense that Murray gets a slight edge in the odds.
The implied probability of 58% that Murray is getting from oddsmakers feels appropriate, so it's hard to find a side with real betting value.
With this matchup, any prediction on a winner feels like a roll of the dice rather than anything else, so for me there isn't a pick to be made in that sense.
Rather, I believe that a unique total has far more of an edge. With the total in this match set between 22.5 and 23.5 (with varying odds), an over cashing would almost certainly require a third set to be played.
The duo traded break opportunity after break opportunity in Indian Wells, and a tiebreaker would be a surprise given the incredible return abilities of each player. Even if a tiebreak is reached, the second of the first two sets would require nine or more games to be played for the game total to go over.
At -110, the implied probability of 52.4% each way on the total does feel accurate, but this means that you can target another wager with an edge.
BetMGM is offering the over on 2.5 sets at +135, meaning there is a 42.5% implied probability on the bet. I would evaluate the chances of Murray and Alcaraz splitting sets at approximately 50%, so this bet gives you the greatest edge in terms of pure value.
Out of the 23 matches that have been played in Vienna, nine of them (39%) have gone the distance.
However, in Murray's last six matches, three have contained more than two sets and in Alcaraz's last six full matches (including majors), only one has finished in straight sets.
Instead of hyper-analyzing an incredibly tight matchup, opt for the choice that will give you the best expected value.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Sets (+135) via BetMGM
