Angelique Kerber vs. Elise Mertens Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 1)

Kerber vs. Mertens Odds

What would've been a marquee matchup just a year or two ago between Angelique Kerber and Elise Mertens at Wimbledon has turned into what bookmakers deem a lopsided affair.

Is that assessment accurate? If so, does the current number go far enough?

Let's analyze the matchup and see where the betting edge lies.

Kerber Back At Home On Grass

There may be no player that enjoys the short grass season each year as much as Kerber.

The 2018 champion at the All England Club ranks near the top of the tour in both total wins and win percentage among all women, and it's easy to see why.

With some of the flattest groundstrokes on tour, as well as one of the strongest lower bodies to get low to the ball, take it early and fire it into open space, Kerber's game was made for the green lawns.

The fact she can create incredible angles in neutral rallies and possesses and lefty serve she can spot with precision just adds to an incredibly strong fundamental foundation.

The form is there as well, going 11-2 on the grass last year, winning Bad Homburg and losing only to champion Ashleigh Barty at the All England Club.

This season she is 4-1 and has cruised into the third round, dropping 11 games in four sets.

Mertens In Prolonged Run Of Poor Form

Before getting into the Belgian's struggles, let's first acknowledge something positive. Wimbledon marks the 18th consecutive slam that Mertens has reached at least the third round.

Now, to the not-so-positive.

The 2022 campaign has been a test of resolve for many players. Garbine Muguruza has broken down on court over her play, Elina Svitolina announced a break before announcing she and Gael Monfils were set to have a child, but no one's shortcomings on the courts this year have been as pronounced as Mertens'.

Her best win since mid-February came via retirement against Petra Kvitova. The lone quarterfinal she's made since St. Petersburg was in Strasbourg, among a weak field the week prior to Roland Garros.

Even her wins in the first two rounds were uninspiring. Camila Osorio is no grass courter and only an injury stopped her, as she led by a set and a break before retiring in the third. Mertens also trailed Panna Udvardy, who has played five total matches on the surface.

She needed a tiebreak in the second and a 12-game third set to get through that.

Betting Value

With the stylistic and form edges firmly in Kerber's corner, the statistical analysis between these two doesn't help the Belgian's case much either.

Kerber dominated Mertens when it comes to career hold plus break percentage – not all that surprising, considering she's one of the best of her generation on the surface. That edge becomes more pronounced when you take into account just the most recent results. the 2021 and 2022 grass seasons).

With an Elo Rating edge on grass of nearly 200 points, Kerber has proven that she hasn't just amassed those impressive stats against mediocre and lesser competition, either. Even with quality of competition factored in, Kerber – at this juncture – looks to be a massive favorite to win this.

For me, while crossing the four-game mark on the spread is conferring a lot of respect on the German star, it doesn't go quite far enough for me. This one should be a flat five games and a little more expensive than +100. 4.5 games at plus money is something I'll certainly be looking to attack.

Picks: Kerber -4.5 games (+104 via PointsBet)

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