There were some wacky results, incredible matches and wild moments on Day 1 of the Mexican Open in Acapulco, and if that was any indication of what's to come this week, we have a roller coaster in store.
We had the two longest matches of the tournament's history back-to-back, featuring one of the weirdest matches I've ever seen with Stefan Kozlov seemingly on the verge of retirement before storming back to beat Grigor Dimitrov.
A host of matches will be played on Tuesday, and there are two matchups that I will be looking to take advantage of. Here's how I'll be betting the slate.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Yoshihito Nishioka (-350) vs. Feliciano Lopez (+260)
7 p.m. ET
The Spaniard hasn't won a singles match in 2022 and hasn't won a main draw ATP Tour singles match since July 2021, so backing Lopez to find his form would be more of a guessing game than anything.
He's coming up against an opponent that won't give him many free points in Nishioka, and the conditions in Acapulco won't offer Lopez many easy opportunities off of his serve.
There's little margin with slower courts and a returner who aims to get every ball in play, so this will be a tough task.
Nishioka comes into the match having won two qualifying matches already, and he's found a bit of a rhythm in the American swing. He reached consecutive Challenger finals before struggling a bit in Dallas and Delray, but his second-round qualifying win in Acapulco came against Peter Gojowczyk, who just took out Brandon Nakashima as a lucky loser.
The Japanese number two also has a 3-1 record against Lopez, and that should provide an added boost of confidence.
His hard court Elo rating that is 100 points higher than his opponent allows us to tick all of the boxes here, making this feel like a clear advantage.
There are bound to be a number of breaks in this match as each player finds their footing in tough conditions for servers, but that works to the advantage of Nishioka, who succeeds far more off the ground than on his serve. That should generate plenty of opportunities to go on runs.
Pick: Nishioka -3.5 games (-110 via Caesars)
Marcos Giron (-128) vs. John Millman (+104)
8:20 p.m. ET
Giron's last match? A loss to Millman in Delray. So, why is he the favorite in this match? There's good reason for it.
The American has been a more consistent player on hard courts over the past 12 months. Giron is 27-21 on hard courts since the start of 2021, while Millman is 18-27 and hasn't been able to generate any consistency in that period.
Form is the name of the game on Tour, but Giron also took the two prior meetings between the pair, including a throttling in Sofia this past fall. His hard court Elo rating is about 40 points higher than Millman, and at this point in their careers, Giron is the more capable player.
That's no discredit to a player that has been a pest in the best way on Tour for years, but the 28-year-old Giron is in the prime of his career, while the 32-year old Millman isn't, so it's no surprise to see one finding more consistency.
Stylistically, the courts in Acapulco are a net neutral, but in Delray, Millman was more suited to take advantage of the windy conditions that made it extremely tough for players to play at their best. Giron was a victim of that.
Look for Giron to raise his level, making this price an attractive one.
Pick: Giron -128 via FanDuel
