We're back for our weekly look at the ATP Tour's finals.
This week, we have three events taking place — indoor hard-court events in Stockholm, Sweden and Antwerp, Belgium, along with an outdoor hard-court event that has had its fair share of issues throughout the week in Napoli, Italy.
We'll focus on the first two as some of the world's top players are involved. Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Holger Rune for the trophy in Sweden and a pair of 22-year-olds do battle in Antwerp as Felix Auger Aliassime and Sebastian Korda go headd-to-head.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-280) vs. Holger Rune (+210)
9:30 a.m. ET, Stockholm
In what could be the most fun and entertaining final on Sunday, Tsitsipas looks to continue building form ahead of an end-of-year calendar that includes Vienna, Paris and then the year-end championships against the up-and-coming Rune.
It's been a strong week for the Greek, who had to problem solve in a big way against the unorthodox Maxime Cressy, before finding a pair of more straightforward wins against Mikael Ymer and Emil Ruusuvuori.
What's interesting to me, is that Rune enters this one in a similar price range to the Finn who was clobbered in the semis by Tsitsipas. Sure, Ruusuvuori is more comfortable in quicker conditions, but the lack of consistency to his game has been a notable weakness for some time, and that's one part of the game that Rune doesn't struggle with nearly as much.
With an improved serve in 2022, Rune should be able to hold his own on serve and it's well-documented how strong Tsitsipas is behind his own serve.
I have a well-rounded and ascending Rune as a smaller underdog than the markets indicate, but there is one concern I have.
Rune has been known to cramp in the past and his stamina is the thing that needs to improve the most.
As a result, I'm going to side with the over being the best play in this match. I also wouldn't mind a look at Rune to take the first set. After a pair of matches that went past two hours, including his semifinal against Alex de Minaur, if he is going to cash that big underdog price, he'll almost certainly need to win the opening set.
Pick: Over 22.5 Games (-115 via BetMGM)
Felix Auger Aliassime (-185) vs. Sebastian Korda (+145)
10 a.m. ET, Antwerp
This final is a fun matchup, especially considering we broke down a final for each of them just a week ago!
After having reached different finals last week, they'll both play on back-to-back Sundays, this time squaring off with one another.
Much like last weekend, I thought the matchup worked well for the Canadian to emerge victorious and thought Korda's matchup was going to be tough for him.
Both of these young guns are tall, athletic and able to rip big groundstrokes from the baseline, but it's the serve that really separates these two. Auger Aliassime's serve is levels ahead of his counterpart at this point, something Korda admitted he must work on this week.
Korda. “I’m a big person, I should have a big serve”.
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) October 21, 2022
That gives Auger Aliassime the clear edge for me in the battle of the 22-year-olds.
The fact that one of the big reasons he's found so much success over the past few weeks comes down to his improved return game gives me confidence that he'll be able to generate a few break-point opportunities along the way in this match.
Pick: Auger Aliassime -2.5 (-115 via PointsBet)
