It's the second week of back-to-back Masters 1000 events, as the ATP Tour shifts from Canada to the Midwest. Cincinnati takes center stage for what will be the final tune-up week for many of the tour's top players ahead of the US Open.
Let's take a look at a pair of matches that could end up being rather lengthy affairs on Monday.
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David Goffin (-160) vs. Marcos Giron (+132)
3:30 p.m. ET
The first match takes place between a pair of qualifiers, as Marcos Giron takes on wily veteran David Goffin for a spot in the second round to take on either Roberto Bautista Agut or Francisco Cerundolo.
With the Belgian being an all-court player who once reached the top 10 and Giron preferring hard courts — particularly those that play quickly — this could be a really fun match in the afternoon session.
Luckily for him, the 29-year-old from California is in luck, considering the courts in Ohio are typically some of the fastest hard courts on tour.
With a sneaky serve and forehand combo and strong rally tolerance, Giron should be able to hold his own against Goffin, who can certainly generate pace but doesn't have the power to overwhelm his American counterpart from the baseline.
In terms of form, the American has a slight edge in that department as well. Apart from a dominant win against the softer-hitting Frenchman Hugo Gaston, Goffin's start to the summer hard-court swing hasn't been the most inspiring. Losses to Albert Ramos Vinolas (hardly known for his hard-court prowess) in straight sets and Jack Sock in two leave plenty to be desired.
Even his second qualifying round here, he trailed a promising youngster — albeit a youngster without much hitting ability on hard courts — by a set and outlasted him to reach the main draw.
By contrast, Giron has been playing on hard courts all month, losing a close one to Soonwoo Kwon, having a tough match against Nick Kyrgios (who isn't having a tough time with the Aussie these days) and winning four of his last five.
I'll take this one to be a really tight affair. Considering it's much closer to a 50/50 contest than the odds suggest, I'll also be backing the American at decent plus-money on home soil.
Picks: Over 22.5 Games (-105 via PointsBet) & Giron ML (+136 via FanDuel)
Grigor Dimitrov (-120) vs. Denis Shapovalov(+100)
11 a.m. ET
The night session brings us our second match. The best word to describe the two players involved in this one? Mercurial.
The tennis world has been wondering what could've been with Grigor Dimitrov for quite some time, and at just 23 years old, Denis Shapovalov is well on his way to following in those footsteps.
With both these players possessing strong serves, big groundstrokes and well above-average athleticism, they have all the necessary physical characteristics to succeed in tennis.
Where do they both go off the rails? The mental side to the game.
Point construction and finding ways to break serve are holes in both of their games.
Yet, the talent alone oftentimes keeps them in matches. Consider the fact that Shapovalov has lost nine of his last 10 matches, yet only one of those losses has been routine (Benjamin Bonzi in Mallorca). Even against the likes of Casper Ruud on clay, Shapovalov reached a tiebreak and 5-5 in the two sets, respectively, while taking sets in the majority of those losses.
Similarly, Dimitrov has struggled for form of late, but in his last three losses? A retirement at Wimbledon, a three-set match against Sebastian Korda and then a 6-7, 5-7 loss to Alex de Minaur.
It's actually quite remarkable how often these two lose nearly every close match they're in — which comes back to that mental game issue.
Ultimately, while I'm not confident taking a side in this one — both are poor returners and possess massive serve and forehand combos but have the talent to propel themselves to a set win — I'm more than comfortable backing the over in this one as well.
Pick: Over 22.5 Games (-120 via PointsBet)
