The second day of the tennis season will bring some familiar names back to the court.
Alexander Zverev Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner will all be opening their 2022 campaigns in the ATP Cup as round robin play continues. Each is a solid favorite, but I believe one of those players is going to be given a stiff test.
Here's where I see value in the Saturday evening and Sunday morning action.
Match times are subject to change. For advice on watching tennis matches, read here.
Arthur Rinderknech (-200) vs. Roman Safiullin (+155)
6:00 p.m. ET
On its face, this is a line that doesn't make a ton of sense considering the hard court success that Rinderknech found in 2021 and the lack thereof that Safiullin has displayed.
The Russian closed out his year with four consecutive hard court losses, but the performances were not bad, per se. He lost in three sets to Adrian Mannarino, who went on to beat Andrey Rublev in the next round. Safiullin controlled that match for a large portion of the time, but he wasn't able to convert in big moments.
Other defeats included a third set tiebreaker defeat to Corentin Moutet, indoor hard court specialist Norbert Gombos and his worst performance, a comfortable loss to Yoshihito Nishioka.
Rinderknech's only wins at the end of the season came against an injured Alexander Bublik and Josef Kovalik, and outside of that there wasn't much to write home about for the Frenchman.
Serving is the biggest weapon that Rinderknech has, and it's also the toughest aspect of the game to find early. Safiullin plays a consistent and neutral game off of both wings, so if Rinderknech's level drops at any point and he gets loose behind his forehand, I expect Safiullin to take advantage.
At PointsBet you're going to get the best price on Safiullin to win a set. At -143, that's far more value than other oddsmakers which are offering anywhere from -170 to -200. Use that as an opportunity to have a more conservative wager and a more aggressive one.
Pick: 0.5u Safiullin to Win a Set (-143 via PointsBet) | 0.5u Safiullin +155
Matteo Berrettini (-245) vs. Alex de Minaur (+190)
3:00 a.m. ET
If you followed the tour in 2021, you know that Australians struggled to a large extent, and it was caused in part due to the homesickness that players were dealing with. Many individuals such as John Millman and de Minaur were on the record talking about how hard it was to play tennis with the COVID regulations that were present in Australia.
Because of this, I really believe that we'll see an elevated level of play from some of the premier Aussies when the tour gets going. Almost the entire portion of de Minaur's success came in the first portion of the hard court season up until the grass court season, and a big start to 2022 would be vital for him.
Berrettini comes into this match having withdrawn from his prior one, an ATP Finals group stage match with Zverev. While he should be in full health for this event, it's a situation where he likely hasn't gotten as much work in as he'd like heading into the season.
These are key events for players like Berrettini who are hoping to peak at the Australian Open, but a high level out of the gate shouldn't be expected. De Minaur is the perfect type of player to exploit inconsistency, and I feel as though we could see that from the Italian.
Pick: De Minaur +190 via DraftKings
