The matches from Indian Wells are starting to slow as we get into the business end of the tournament.
We're into the third round of action and, as a result, we're starting to see some of the stronger players remaining square off for a spot in the final 16.
Let's take a look at one such matchup, as well as a generational battle between two Brits.
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ATP Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Hubert Hurkacz (-140) vs Tommy Paul (+118)
Time TBD
The match of the third round (on the men's side) sees a pair of top-20 players go toe-to-toe in Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul.
The American has been in pretty strong form to start his 2023 season. He reached the semifinals of the year's opening slam in Australia, won a match for the United States at the Davis Cup, and then made the final in Acapulco at the 500-level lead-in event to Indian Wells.
Equipped with a decent serve, a big forehand he can move well around the court and strong movement and court coverage, it's no wonder he seems to be as comfortable (and successful) on slower hard courts as he is in quicker conditions.
He had a pair of wins here last year, as well as in Miami and Acapulco (two of the other slow-court events on the circuit) and also had a trio of wins as an underdog late in the season in Paris on slower indoor hard courts.
I'm not concerned about him translating his success down under to these mud-slow courts in the desert.
On the other side of the net, Hurkacz doesn't have the biggest forehand, but does enjoy counterpunching, and those forehand exchanges could very well be where the match is decided.
His serve is one of the better ones on tour, as he consistently racks up aces, but he certainly gives up a bit in the athleticism department in this matchup.
I have this one priced pretty closely. Hurkacz will find more free points on serve, but Paul is the better athlete, and should be able to dictate more on the forehand wing.
I have the American as a toss up here, so I'm happy to take the plus money being offered in the markets.
Picks: Paul Moneyline (+118 via FanDuel)
Jack Draper (-165) vs Andy Murray (+135)
Time TBD
Andy Murray went from having to play a fellow grinder who could really cause him problems, to a lucky loser with no weapons and no real gameplan in Radu Albot.
Now, Murray takes on Jack Draper. The 21-year-old has a big game with a lefty serve, strong forehand and decent athletic abilities.
He's far more well suited to quick hard courts and grass though, and he struggles constructing points on slower courts. We also saw him struggle more than expected against Dan Evans last round.
As lopsided as that 6-4, 6-2 scoreline looks, Evans dragged that out to be a two-hour affair (almost unheard of for a match ending in 18 games). He also generated 11 break points, and had at least one chance in four separate games.
Considering Evans was in poor form and is no slow-court aficionado himself, that win wasn't all that impressive.
Enter Murray.
He dispatched Albot with relative ease, meaning he's had a day off after a rather uneventful match. I'm expecting he won't be showing any signs of fatigue for this one.
His pedigree on hard courts needs no explanation as a legend of the game, and his ability to grind on slower courts should allow him to push Draper as much — if not more — as Evans did.
Murray's backhand is far stronger as well, and not nearly as reliant on somewhat ineffective slices. That wing being a strength is important in this matchup against a big-hitting southpaw.
Give me the veteran who has found ways to consistently gut out wins at plus money.
