It was a solid outing for our most recent picks, as Francisco Cerundolo didn't just send the match over the total and cover the 5.5 games, but he absolutely took it to Jannik Sinner in the final set to win outright. The Coric spread didn't come through against an inspired Fabian Marozsan, but we'll take the 2-1.
We're onto the semifinals, where we have a pair of tasty matchups, including Stefanos Tsitsipas taking on Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune squaring off with Casper Ruud.
It's worth noting, these exact matchups have produced some fireworks in the past and that should add an extra layer of intrigue to each of them.
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ATP Rome Odds & Picks
Holger Rune (-170) vs Casper Ruud (+135)
7 a.m. ET
It's the all-Scandanavian battle that will get things going on semifinal Saturday for the men.
Rune will be targeting his second Masters 1000 on clay this year (there are only three Masters 1000 events played on the red stuff), while Ruud has snapped a nasty run of form that saw him win just a pair of matches in three events coming off his title in Estoril, Portugal.
These two met at Roland Garros last year, where Rune really made an impact on the big stage for the first time, with Ruud coming through that one in four sets.
As even he alluded to in his on-court interview following his quarterfinal victory over Cerundolo though, that was a very different and less developed version of his Danish opponent.
The 20-year old has burst into the world's top-10 since then and has an incredibly well-rounded game. I'd even go as far as to say he matches up incredibly well now with Ruud.
Market odds reflect as much, with Rune the favorite to win the matchup, but I'm not sure the spread is high enough.
Rune may not generate the RPM on his forehand wing that Ruud can, but his forehand is far from a weakness, he has a better serve and his edge on the backhand wing is rather sizable.
He is also the better mover and has far more rally tolerance than Ruud's last opponent.
All that is to say, Rune can stick with Ruud on return, does more things at a higher level than his counterpart and can still dictate play behind his own serve.
I make this spread a cheap 3.5 games or expensive three, so the -2.5 we're seeing out there is a strong bet in my books, and I also think the moneyline in the -150 range is a pretty decent price.
Pick: Rune -2.5 games (-105 via PointsBet)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-145) vs Daniil Medvedev (+120)
8:30 a.m E.T.
Another matchup that has seen some heated moments features two of the world's best in Tsitsipas and Medvedev.
It's a rivalry that has shifted in recent times, with the big Russian taking the seven of the first nine matches they played. It's gone the other way in the two most recent encounters, however, with Tsitsipas beating Medvedev twice in 2022.
His willingness to come into net more against Medvedev – who enjoys standing well behind the baseline and just getting everything back – has really helped him knock off his nemesis of late.
He obviously also gets the much bigger boost as the surface they're playing on switches from hard courts to slow clay.
Many are big on Medvedev and his improved record on the surface, but I'm not convinced just yet. We still haven't seen a signature win from him, despite his style actually playing decently on the surface, and last year at the French Open he did this same thing where he ran opponents off the court before running into Marin Cilic, who dispatched him with ease.
This is the test for Medvedev, as he now takes on one of the game's elite players in slow conditions on clay.
As for Tsitsipas, he's rounded into form as the tournament has progressed. His backhand can be susceptible to being attacked even in Rome, but it's yet another semifinal in the Italian capital, and he hasn't dropped a set yet, despite playing a pretty decent Lorenzo Sonego, a very talented clay courter in Lorenzo Musetti and then an in-form Borna Coric who has given him all sorts of problems in the past.
I'm not as big on Medvedev as most and I'm not as down on Tsitsipas as most either.
As a result, I'm seeing value in backing the Greek to move through to the final.
Pick: Tsitsipas ML (-145 via DraftKings)
