The ATP is getting back into the swing of non-Slam tournament play, and there will be three more tournaments on tour set to take place this week, including a 500-level event in Rotterdam.
Following a trio of tournaments that included two +450-or greater upsets in the finals (Alexander Bublik and Joao Sousa), as well as a qualifier going all the way to the final in Cordoba (Alejandro Tabilo), it'll be hard to top the wackiness that ensued on Tour.
Sascha Bublik won his first career ATP title after defeating World No. 3 Alexander Zverev in straight sets! đź‘Ź
Bublik was a +475 underdog heading into the match đź’°pic.twitter.com/gbUU7r3xL8
— Action Network Tennis (@ActionNetTennis) February 6, 2022
That isn't necessarily the worst thing for bettors, however.
Read on for a breakdown of the main draw matches that I'll be betting in Rotterdam.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Mackenzie McDonald (-194) vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili (+164)
7 a.m. ET
This is a fascinating line to me. I would've expected it to be around a pick 'em, but the Georgian's form is playing a heavy role in the pricing.
At the expected number of around -110, I would've been thrilled to play McDonald. But I'm also comfortable betting the spread here, even considering Basilashvili is such a tough player to evaluate when heading into the start of a tournament.
When in-form, he can be one of the most dangerous ball-strikers on tour, with a massive backhand behind him. But when playing like he has over the last few weeks, he's an error machine that struggles to find the court.
The biggest edge here, however, comes with the surface. Over the last three years, McDonald is 18-13 on indoor hard courts while Basilashvili is 5-15.
That's hard to ignore, and it's a good enough reason for me to back the American despite Basilashvili's capability of switching up his form in quick fashion.
Pick: McDonald -2.5 games (-115 via Caesars)
Hubert Hurkacz (-500) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+390)
1:30 p.m. ET
A former Slam finalist and Big 3 slayer, Tsonga is one of the most talented players to grace the court in this century. However, he's now 36 and aiming to make one last run on the Tour. It's going to be tough for him to go toe-to-toe with some of the world's best, though.
Hurkacz had a disappointing run in the Australian Open, but he opened his year with some quality performances in the ATP Cup, including a dominant victory over Diego Schwartzman.
His game style matches up well against a player in Tsonga who can struggle with errors when facing a strong defensive opponent. In his two matches in Montpellier, he had a sub-one winner-to-unforced error ratio, and if he does that against Hurkacz, the Polish number one is capable of exploiting the issue.
Plus, Hurkacz has covered the game spread in each of the four matches he's won on Tour this year, so at any plus-money price, this spread makes sense to me.
Pick: Hurkacz -4.5 games (+120 via DraftKings)
Cameron Norrie (-128) vs. Ugo Humbert (+110)
2:50 p.m. ET
The 2021 Indian Wells champion hasn't been able to muster any of the form that allowed him to reach that point.
Norrie is 0-4 on the season and was knocked out of the Australian Open in dominant fashion by Sebastian Korda, falling in three quick sets.
Humbert is also having a rough start to the season, with his lone win coming in his opening ATP Cup match against Daniil Medvedev. He's lost four on the bounce coming into this one, but this is a matchup that projects well for him on paper.
Though Norrie has a better record against fellow lefties in his career, Humbert won the lone match they had 6-1, 6-3, though the circumstances were far different on clay three years ago. Nonetheless, the result isn't a surprise considering Norrie's loopy forehand goes right into the strike zone for Humbert.
The key for the Brit will be to coax loose play out of Humbert with his low backhands, but if the Frenchman is able to stay patient and consistent in backhand to backhand rallies, I think that he's the favorite to come through.
Pick: Ugo Humbert (+110 via FanDuel)
