Casper Ruud vs. Diego Schwartzman
| Ruud Odds | -196 |
| Schwartzman Odds | +164 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 |
| Time | 2 p.m. ET |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
The second clay court final of the year is upon us Sunday, featuring two top-15 players with Casper Ruud facing Diego Schwartzman in the Argentina Open.
Ruud is the first seed in the tournament, while Schwartzman is the second. And while the pair have taken different routes to reach the final, they're primed for a quality clash.
The world No. 8 hasn't been entirely flawless on the week, but he's come close to it. Ruud went down a break to Roberto Carballes Baena in his first match of the tournament, but recovered to defeat the Spaniard in straight sets.
Since then, Ruud has only been broken once and has conceded just nine break points over two sets. He's looked locked in behind his biggest weapon — the forehand — and been composed off of his backhand side. He's undoubtedly one of the world's best clay courters and looked the part in Buenos Aires.
Schwartzman has been tested significantly in each of his three matches, first getting by Jaume Munar in two tiebreakers before beating Francisco Cerundolo and Lorenzo Sonego in three sets.
The Argentine has competed well under pressure, but allowed himself to get into difficult positions due to a lack of firepower behind his serve. Schwartzman is a player that thrives on the ground rather than with a big serve, but he's conceded 27 break points through eight sets on the week.
Fortunately, his brilliant return game and groundstroke consistency has allowed him to generate 41 break points of his own, but that'll be far more difficult against a server as potent as Ruud.
Schwartzman and Ruud have met seven times on tour, with Schwartzman holding a 5-2 edge. In 2021, Ruud found both of his wins in the matchup, beating Schwartzman in Monte Carlo and Cincinnati before falling at Indian Wells.
This will be the first time the duo have met in an event beyond the round of 16, but will Ruud's winning trend continue?
Betting Value
Fading Ruud on clay is not a profitable endeavor, so I won't try and make a case for it in this match.
The Norwegian has looked incredibly solid despite playing in his first clay event of the year, and there aren't many you would pick ahead of him on the surface right now.
Ruud's clay Elo Rating of 1981 is approximately 100 points higher than Schwartzman's, and there's good reason for that.
He should be able to generate far more free points behind his serve, his forehand is the biggest weapon on the court, and the type of sustained rallies that Schwartzman uses to his advantage against other players won't be as effective against someone with rally tolerance like Ruud.
Of course, this isn't going to be a cakewalk and Schwartzman should be buoyed by playing in front of his home crowd as he has all week. However, Ruud is just too good to pass on in this matchup.
While some books are pricing Ruud -2.5 at -145 or longer, I would play -2.5 at -130 or better, as it will offer you a touch of insurance that 3.5 won't from a betting perspective. Nonetheless, I believe Ruud will be able to add another clay court title to his name in this match.
Pick: Ruud -2.5 games (-130 or better)
