While the first round gets underway at the St. Petersburg Open, there are two matches in the qualifying draw that are valuable betting opportunities.
Read on for my take on the early morning tennis that will be played in Russia.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching ATP qualifiers.
Egor Gerasimov (-300) vs. Radu Albot (+225)
4:00 a.m. ET
The Belarusian has been in excellent form as of late, getting three wins in Moscow last week before falling to the eventual champion Aslan Karatsev. He has a great opportunity to reach another main draw against a player in Albot who should struggle to deal with Gerasimov's dominance on serve.
In recent weeks, Gerasimov has found the form that has allowed him to garner a career 60% win rate in ATP main draw patches played on indoor hard-court surfaces. He's 12-6 on the surface this season, despite being 9-21 on other courts.
Albot has also had some success on indoor hard courts this year. The Moldovan reached the semifinals of the Singapore Open in February, but his results have been limited since then. Since the beginning of the hard court season over the summer, Albot is 3-6 across all levels of the tour.
Though Albot has a 1-0 H2H record against Gerasimov, the lone win came in 2014 in a Davis Cup tie played on clay, a surface much more suitable in this matchup for Albot. He has a 1-1 ace-to-double-fault ratio on hard court matches this year, and that simply won't cut it against Gerasimov who will be dealing with far less pressure in his service games.
Back Gerasimov to dominate this matchup.
Pick: Egor Gerasimov to win 2-0 (-118 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Miomir Kecmanovic (-150) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka (+110)
4:00 a.m. ET
Kecmanovic and Nishioka have met twice before, with Nishioka taking a 2020 Rome Masters battle on clay and Kecmanovic earning a win at the 2019 iteration of the BNP Paribas Open. Neither match was particularly close, and I suspect that could be the case again in this one.
The Japanese number two comes into the match after an impressive win against Roman Safiullin. After back-to-back losses against John Isner and Mackenzie McDonald, it was important for Nishioka to regain his confidence. His win against the hometown favorite Safiullin will help with that.
Kecmanovic has been struggling in recent months, as he's just 3-10 in his last 13 hard-court matches. The Serbian has been struggling with inconsistency within matches over that period, and facing Nishioka will provide him no comfort in his efforts to end the rut he's in.
Nishioka is the type of player that will be content to extend points at the baseline and aim to make his opponent make shot after shot. An in-form Kecmanovic has the power and craftiness to work through that, but an out-of-form Kecmanovic could have major struggles in breaking down Nishioka.
Considering the level of each player, Nishioka could easily be a favorite in this matchup, and thus any plus-money number is quality value.
Pick: Yoshihito Nishioka (+110 via Bet365)
