Tennis fans — the wait is finally over. Welcome to the first Grand Slam of the year.
The Australian Open will be played over the next two weeks in Melbourne, Australia, where World No. 1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner enters as the favorite to defend his title.
There are those who will be eager to put a halt to Sinner’s recent run atop the men’s game, such as frenemy and next-gen counterpart Carlos Alcaraz, and the seasoned vet Novak Djokovic, who’s looking to add to his already record tally of 24 major championships.
Let’s dive into the players who can realistically capture the maiden Grand Slam of 2025, along with some long shots who I think hold lots of value in the market.
All odds via DraftKings.
Australian Open Outright Picks
Jannik Sinner (+110)
The defending champion was already the favorite going into the event, and his chances of repeating in Melbourne got even stronger once the draw was released.
The three men with the shortest odds following Sinner’s (Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev) are all on the other side of the draw, meaning he won't have to face one of them until a potential finals clash.
Sinner is coming off a stellar 2024 campaign where he captured both the Australian and US Opens, the year-end ATP Finals, and three Masters 1000 titles in Miami, Cincinnati and Shanghai. To top it off, he clinched the winning point for Italy at the Davis Cup finals in November.
He’s the best hard-court player in the world, as his punishing ground strokes and excellent serve suits him well on the fast playing surface in Melbourne. He’s a solid bet to defend his title and win his third major.
Carlos Alcaraz (+350)
If Sinner doesn’t repeat, it’s likely because he lost at the hands of the sport’s other young darling — “Carlitos.” Sinner went 73-3 in 2024 against players not named Alcaraz, and 0-3 vs. his Spanish rival. Alcaraz also had a strong year, winning two slams at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but also struggled at times with inconsistent play, highlighted by a second round exit at the US Open.
In search of more consistency in 2025, Alcaraz and his team, led by former world No. 1 Juan Carlos Ferrero, made some small adjustments in the offseason. Alcaraz switched to a racket frame that’s five grams heavier than his previous one, which Ferrero says will add more speed and weight to his ball, and help counteract the power of big-hitting opponents such as Sinner and Zverev. Alcaraz has also been debuting a new serve motion in pre-tournament practice, eliminating a hitch he once had and loading his back leg for proper weight transferring ability through contact. Alcaraz’s serve hampered him a bit last season, so it’s no surprise that this very important part of the game was a focal point for the Spaniard this offseason.
This is a big event for the 21-year-old, as it’s his first chance at completing the career Grand Slam. If he were to win in Melbourne, he would become the youngest man in the history of the sport to win all four majors. This is certain to add a bit of pressure, as will a potential matchup with Djokovic in the quarters, who defeated Alcaraz in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics last summer.
Novak Djokovic (+600)
If you can get the 10-time champion at an event and probably the greatest tennis player of all time at +600, you should probably think about taking those odds. This year marks the 20th anniversary of Djokovic’s first appearance in the main draw at the Australian Open, an event he’s been absurdly successful at, hoisting the trophy 10 times in his past 13 appearances.
At 37 years old and coming off an injury-riddled 2024, he’s not the unstoppable force he once was. But, he’s the last of the “Big Four” still standing, and has added old friend and rival Andy Murray to his coaching staff. The insights from one of the sport’s greatest competitors could serve Djokovic well as he’s looking to make a run at a record 25th major championship.
The question is whether Djokovic can regain past form at a tournament he’s dominated, or will 2025 signal the beginning of the end for an all-time great?
Long shots with Good Value
Taylor Fritz (+3000)
The top American on the men’s side is entering 2025 on a heater. Fritz is coming off his best season on tour, capturing two titles and making the finals at the US Open and the year-end championships, losing both matches to Sinner.
But most importantly, Fritz proved to himself and the rest of the tour that he can contend on the big stage. Now, ranked No. 4 in the world, he’s looking to make the next jump and consistently compete for Grand Slam titles.
Fritz stands as the Americans’ best chance at a men’s major champion since Andy Roddick won the US Open in 2003. It remains to be seen whether Fritz is mentally up to the task to end the drought, but these are pretty good odds for a top-five player in the world who’s playing the best tennis of his career.
Alex De Minaur (+5000)
The world No. 8 and the top Aussie will look to make a splash at his home major coming off an impressive 2024 season. He ran out of gas in the fourth round of last year’s Australian Open, where he was up two sets to one against Andrey Rublev, but eventually lost 6-0 in the fifth.
De Minaur advanced to the quarterfinals in the last three Grand Slams of the year and cracked the top 10 for the first time in his career. He also became the first Australian to qualify for the year-end finals since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004.
He will look to build off this momentum — and the support from the home crowd — to make a deep run in Melbourne.
