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The Australian Open stages a match between Alex de Minaur and Milos Raonic, a match that contrasts two distinct styles of play – de Minaur's world class speed and defense against Raonic's relentless power. Additionally, we get a battle of two Frenchman, Alexandre Muller and Hugo Grenier.
Read on to see how I envision these matches playing out in my Australian Open best bets.
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Alex de Minaur (-800) vs Milos Raonic (+550)
Sunday, 3 a.m. ET
Alex de Minaur, the Australian favorite, enters his home Grand Slam with an extra spark. The fastest man on tour is coming off a massive United Cup earning his first win over Novak Djokovic. De Minaur's ability to not only chase down balls but also redirect speed with precision sets him apart. His agility and quick reflexes allow him to turn defense into offense, a skill crucial against a player with a power game like Raonic.
Raonic, known for his cannon serve and powerful forehand can hit through anybody. His ability to hit through opponents was clear throughout his prime, and even a defender as adept as de Minaur could find it challenging to hold steady against such power. However, Raonic's comeback trail has been marked by inconsistency. Once on the brink of retirement, he has lacked the consistency that once made him a top player.
The clash of styles here will be a battle. Raonic's strategy will likely focus on exploiting de Minaur's weaker second serve and using his power to dominate rallies from the first shot. However, I trust de Minaur's ability to keep the ball away from Raonic's lethal forehand. Expect de Minaur to engage Raonic in extended rallies, drawing errors through persistent defense and sharp counterattacks.
De Minaur's record in the Australian Open is impressive, having won three of his last four opening matches in straight sets. This trend bodes well for him, especially considering his current form and the home crowd support. His speed and strategic play should enable him to create more break opportunities than Raonic, eventually getting through this round with ease.
Pick: De Minaur 3-0 (+100 via FanDuel)
Alexandre Muller (-260) vs Hugo Grenier (+205)
Saturday, 11:30 p.m. ET
Muller started off his year strong with solid performances in Auckland and Grenier did well to qualify here at the Australian Open. Muller plays a very adaptable style of tennis; he has tremendous defense but seems to have truly elevated his attacking game as of late. Showing off plenty of aggression earlier this year, he has added a new and much needed element to his game.
Grenier boasts a power game, relying heavily on his serve. In qualifying, he simply out-served two others of a similar style, Maxime Cressy and Giovanni-Mpetshi Perricard. These two often put their opponents in awkward situations, not allowing them to get comfortable on the court. However, Grenier will be facing a much different challenge when Muller lines up on the opposite side of the court.
Muller’s game is much more adaptable than Cressy and Perricard's and it may be a change of pace that Grenier will take time to adjust to. Also holding a 2-0 head-to-head record against his compatriot, Muller is likely not an opponent Grenier was hoping to face. With their previous two meetings occurring on indoor hard courts – a setting that should favor the big serving Grenier – yet Muller won both matchups with relative ease, it's hard to expect a change of result here.
I will be trusting Muller to handle his compatriot once again and arrive in the second round without too many problems.
Pick: Muller -4.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
