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Here's everything you need to know about Australian Open Picks on Sunday, Jan. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks, including Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Rebeka Masarova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Donna Vekic.
With the first sleepless night for many of us in North America behind us, we can now get used to a fortnight of being nocturnal and enjoy the Happy Slam.
The second day of action has the most singles matches of the 15 at Melbourne Park with both the top and bottom halves of the draw taking the courts.
I've found a few prices I like the women's draw, with Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Rebeka Masarova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Donna Vekic both presenting value.
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Australian Open Day 2 Picks and Predictions
Aliaksandra Sasnovich (-156) vs Rebeka Masarova (+132)
9 p.m. ET
We'll start with an underdog that I believe is far more likely to win than the market consensus in Masarova. The tall Spaniard is someone that had a decent season in 2023 (including a run to the final in Auckland – though it's worth noting many of those matches were played indoors due to the excessive rain) and I do believe that she can keep rising this year.
Her movement may be an issue in certain matches, but her first serve and forehand also mean as she improves, she'll have a pretty high floor as well.
Hard courts are her preferred surface and the quicker the conditions, the better off she is. Short points mean fewer errors for her and less running, and her serve often means she can find a few more sweat-free holds of serve than many of her opponents.
Sasnovich got her early last year on a hard court, but that was from 2-6 down in a fairly close match and her form and play as 2023 wore deteriorated in a major way. Not to mention, Masarova repaid the favor with interest with a seven-game beat down on grass in Germany later on last season.
The Belarussian plays with very little margin, doesn't really construct points, and for the aggressive baseline game she lacks in the power department on serve.
I'll take the steadier player with more natural power that is on the right trajectory at plus money.
Pick: Masarova ML (+132 via FanDuel)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-172) vs Donna Vekic (+146)
10 p.m. ET
A matchup that may look somewhat similar on paper with the Russian entering in better form, I see this match as pretty one-sided for a few different reasons.
These two women each play a front-foot, first-strike brand of tennis. The first serves, plus-one power and ability to dictate play on their own terms are strengths for both Pavlyuchenkova and Vekic. That said, there are a few key differences between the two.
First, Pavlyuchenkova is beginning to show signs of the form that once took her to the top-15 in the world rankings. She can stand and hit with Vekic, while being a more efficient mover and possessing far more stamina than her counterpart.
Secondly, the form entering the year's first major favors the 32-year old. Vekic may enter with a 2-0 record, while Pavlyuchenkova is 4-2, but both of Vekic's wins were lackluster in their own way, needing three sets to beat Malene Helgo (no, you're not supposed to know who the heck that is) and Arantxa Rus (a clay courter, who often ventures down to the ITF level to rack up cheap points).
Pavlyuchenkova started slow in Auckland, but had decisive wins over tour regular Ana Bogdan and the always dangerous Beatriz Haddad Maia in Adelaide, before pushing Jessica Pegula to three tight sets.
If her serve continues to improve and she can put away her plus-one forehands with ease, she should be in a great spot. She generally returns and moves better than most fellow power players, and that dynamism makes her a threat to go much further than the second round if she beats Vekic.
Pick: Pavlyuchenkova -2.5 (122 via FanDuel)
