The men’s semifinals at the Australian Open didn't turn out to be the blockbuster matches we’d hoped for. The tussle between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev got off to an exciting start, with Zverev winning the first set in a tiebreak. But after an hour and 20 minutes on court, the match ended abruptly. Djokovic was forced to medically retire, pausing his chase for an elusive 25th Grand Slam title.
Zverev, advancing to his third major final, will face World No. 1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner following Sinner’s straight set victory over Ben Shelton.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 4-2 against Sinner. However, Sinner won the only meeting last season, in a thrilling third-set tiebreak at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 event.
Sinner (-275 on the moneyline) is the favorite, while Zverev is +215 to win. My Sinner vs. Zverev prediction is below.
All odds via DraftKings.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction
Zverev will likely have to play a perfect match to have a chance at a maiden Grand Slam title. Sinner, in his current form, looks absolutely untouchable as he's riding a 20-match win streak dating back to last season.
He’s raised his level of play substantially since this time last year, when he won his first Australian Open. Sinner has won 81% of his first-serve points and 62% on the second serve. He’s also been broken just five times in six matches in this event. On the return side, he’s won the second-most return points in the men’s draw and leads the field in second serve return points won.
That'll put immense pressure on Zverev to hold serve effectively and efficiently as Sinner won't present him with many break point opportunities. Previous meetings between these two have been incredibly tight, with plenty of tiebreaks.
Zverev defeated Sinner in five sets at the 2023 US Open, but Sinner has expanded his game and grown a lot mentally since then.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev Pick
I forecast this match being another close contest, though I give the slight advantage to Sinner in three key aspects. First, his ability to impose his power and ball speed onto his opponent and take control of the rally early. Zverev’s defense has improved over the years, but I don't think he will be able to last four or five sets if Sinner is on offense for a majority of the match.
Second, Sinner’s variety and shotmaking at all levels of the court. He's winning over 67% of points when he approaches the net, which will help to get Zverev off rhythm and change the pace of the rally. Sinner will challenge Zverev to move back and forth and side to side, something Zverev would rather not do.
Lastly, in his young and blossoming career, Sinner has displayed the calm on-court attitude and mental toughness required to ascend to the greatest heights in tennis. The dominant serving displayed by both Sinner and Zverev over the past two weeks points to a high likelihood that one or perhaps several tiebreaks will decide this contest. Sinner’s mental toughness and elite return game will lift him over the top in the crucial moments of this championship bout.
Recent history favors Sinner here. Since 2000, the top two seeds have met in the final of the Australian Open on five occasions. All five matches (Andre Agassi in 2000, Rafael Nadal in 2009, Novak Djokovic in 2012, 2016 & 2019) have been won by the top seed.
I project Sinner to emerge victorious and capture his third career Grand Slam title in four close sets.
Picks: Sinner 3:1 Sets (+260), Over 40.5 Total Games (+100), Sinner Over 21.5 Games Won (-110)
