Australian Open Men’s Semifinals Preview, Prediction and Picks

The semifinal matchups in this year’s Australian Open are set. Seemingly ageless 10-time champion Novak Djokovic will face World No. 2 Alexander Zverev, and World No. 1 Jannik Sinner will look to keep his title defense alive as he takes on American phenom Ben Shelton. 

Let’s dive in and break down what should be two intense, high-level battles between these final four. 

All odds via DraftKings.

Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev Preview

Djokovic entered into absolute warrior mode in his epic quarterfinal match against Carlos Alcaraz. The record-holder for most Australian Open titles overcame a one-set deficit to the Spaniard and discomfort in his left leg to reach his 50th career major semifinal, the most all-time in the Open Era. 

Djokovic elevated his play to an absurdly high level following a visit with the trainer to address the issue with the upper left leg. The 37-year-old displayed the incredible physical and mental fortitude we’ve seen from him time and time again to hold off the 21-year-old Alcaraz in four grueling sets.

It’s hard to encapsulate Djokovic’s dominance at the Australian Open over the past two decades. He holds a 99-9 record at the event and has lifted the trophy in four of the past five he’s competed in (2019-21 and 2023). 

Djokovic has been virtually unbeatable in Rod Laver Arena since he captured his first Australian Open title in 2008, and the extra day of rest he will get before the semifinal to recover from the injury will only make the task more difficult for Zverev to stop Djokovic’s run at a record 25th major championship. 

In Zverev's case, the pressure is mounting for him to finally break through at a Grand Slam. The German star has made eight appearances in a Grand Slam semifinal, advancing to two finals. He let a two set to one lead slip away in last year’s French Open final to Alcaraz, and fell in the 2020 US Open final to Dominic Thiem after winning the first two sets. 

For close to a decade now, Zverev has been touted as one of the few players who has the potential to take the reins of men’s tennis once the previous generation of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic had retired. Two of the three are now gone, and Zverev will face the third on Friday afternoon in Melbourne. 

Zverev too experienced some adversity in his quarterfinal against American Tommy Paul. Paul served for each of the first two sets, and Zverev broke serve to force tiebreaks that he dominated, dropping just one point combined. It certainly wasn’t his best tennis, but he found a way. 

Zverev, the Gold Medal winner at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, has won big matches in his career. But mental lapses in pressure situations have unfortunately become characteristic. He cannot afford these dips, as his opponent is likely the most mentally tough player to ever hold a tennis racket. 

Zverev should certainly be confident heading into this contest. He’s played strong tennis to start the year, dropping just two sets in his first five matches in Melbourne, and his booming serve should work to neutralize Djokovic’s solid return game and keep the match close. 

Premium picks, tools & analysis

Real money percentages

Top prop & TD edges

Real-time expert pick alerts

SAVE 66% NOW!

Djokovic vs. Zverev Prediction

I wrote in my pre-tournament preview that Djokovic carries a Thanos-like inevitability at the Australian Open, and his +600 odds two weeks ago were too high for a 10-time winner. The 37-year-old now stands two matches away from winning his 11th Australian Open and strengthening his case as the greatest tennis player of all time.

Djokovic holds the advantage in the head-to-head record vs. Zverev, winning eight of their 12 matchups. Furthermore, Djokovic is undefeated in his three matches against Zverev in Grand Slams. I think he has a good shot to add to that total. 

For as well as Zverev is playing at the moment, it’s challenging to see him coming out on top in this spot considering the gap in experience and confidence in winning a five-setter. On the flip side, Djokovic is an astounding 40-11 in matches that reach a deciding fifth set. 

At this level, tennis is just as taxing mentally as it is physically – and perhaps even more so. When the matches get close and other players get tight and tentative with their shotmaking, Djokovic finds that next level. I expect him to do so once again, defeating Zverev in four sets. 

Pick: Novak Djokovic 3:1 Sets (+300)

Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton Preview

Jannik Sinner is no doubt the best tennis player on planet Earth at the moment. Riding a 19-match win streak going back to last season, he is playing perfect tennis. The Italian is absolutely crushing the ball and serving at an unreal clip, holding serve in 75 of his 78 service games at this year’s Australian Open. 

Sinner played by far his best match of the tournament against the 8th seeded Alex De Minaur, winning 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 in comfortable fashion. The combination of power, elegance and balance he displayed in his dismantling of De Minaur is of rare quality, only displayed by some of the greatest to ever play the sport. The fast surface in Melbourne fits his punishing play style and quick-twitch movements so well that he looks unbeatable at the moment. 

Shelton should expect to be pushed to the limit against Sinner. Shelton has lauded his improved fitness as an indicator of his recent Grand Slam success. An entertainer on court since his days winning national championships at the University of Florida, Shelton is playing with a heightened level of confidence and focus, and now holds a 75% match win record at the four majors, impressive for just a 22-year-old. 

Shelton’s all-court game will be a key factor in this matchup. He cannot afford the match to consist purely of baseline rallies and allow the Italian to dictate the pace. If Sinner gets the first crack at it, he will attack Shelton’s lefty backhand over and over. 

Shelton must mix up his booming first serve with slices and kicks out wide, come to the net effectively, and take responsible risks throughout the course of the match, as explained by Andy Roddick on his podcast. The willingness to change pace and height on shots can work to limit Sinner’s ability to get into a rhythm from the baseline, and is Shelton’s best chance at pulling off the upset. 

Sinner vs. Shelton Pick

Sinner looks poised to repeat as champion in Melbourne, and the crowd will surely be solidly behind the World No.1. This is no worry for Shelton, as his collegiate experience prepared him for playing big matches in hostile environments. Still, Sinner seems to have a response for everything his opponents throw at him. 

Unfortunately, I think the 20+ year title drought for American men at major championships continues at least until Roland Garros. Shelton’s raw talent is some of the finest in the world, but Sinner’s punishing play coupled with his steady demeanor is the recipe for success in the late stages of a slam. 

These deep runs into the second week of a major are sure to be great learning lessons for Shelton, who I project will have a long and successful career, and will carry the mantle of American tennis for a long time. I think he takes a set off Sinner in a tiebreaker, but Friday night will go to the defending champion. 

Pick: Jannik Sinner 3:1 Sets (+235)