The ruler is back in Australia once again. 36-year old Novak Djokovic will defend his Australian Open title to kick off the 2024 tennis season, aiming for an 11th victory at the first Grand Slam of the year and a 25th for his career. His field of challengers looks even weaker than it has over the last couple of years with top contenders entering with little form and an injury to Rafael Nadal, but that doesn't mean this tournament will be straightforward.
Let's get into how each quarter should shake out and find some value across the board. Here are my Australian Open predictions, and why I'm buying on Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov and more.
Note: All odds came from DraftKings. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches. The full men's draw can be found here.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Quarter 1: No Bet
The way I see it, Djokovic should have two tough matches on his way to the semifinals, and by no means do I think they will be tough enough for the 24-time Grand Slam winner to overcome.
The first might surprise you, but it will come in the second round against Australian Alexi Popyrin. The 24-year old always brings his best level in his home nation, stunning then-World No. 9 Taylor Fritz last season in an epic five-setter and showcasing a great level in Brisbane before an injury eventually led to a loss against the tough Roman Safiullin. He has a bit of magic in his racquet in big matches and thrives off of low-percentage shots, which is exactly what Djokovic will bait his opponents into going for.
The second is a bit easier to spot, but it'll come potentially in round 4 against Ben Shelton, who didn't manage a set against the Serb in last year's US Open semis but did push hard in the final set. He's similar to Popyrin in his makeup, but he's got more talent and seems to get better with every month on Tour.
Other than that, I don't see Fritz, Gael Monfils, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Matteo Berrettini troubling him in this quarter given their previous meetings. This isn't exactly an exciting price on Djokovic to win the quarter at -500, so I'll be staying off of betting this section of the draw. If you're insistent on a long shot, I'd take a look at Berrettini +3500, who has not only done very well at Slams traditionally but should have a relatively easy draw if he can past an injured Tsitsipas in the first round.
He's given Djokovic a fight every time they've met on this stage, so it's not out of the question he could provide a hedge opportunity should they meet in the quarterfinal. He hasn't been seen since the US Open, which is why he's such a long shot, but he has the talent and the draw to find his form quickly here on fast courts which should suit his game.
Quarter 2: Alex de Minaur (+300), Frances Tiafoe (+1400)
We haven't seen Jannik Sinner conquer a Grand Slam draw yet in his career, so laying -140 here on him to win the quarter certainly gives me pause. We also haven't seen him play save for a couple exhibition matches, so it's certainly fair to question how his form will be down under.
Sinner is, without a doubt, the best player in this draw, but with just one Grand Slam semifinal to his name there's still some time left to fade the youngster before he goes on to become a multi-time major champ. I'll do so with Alex de Minaur, whose odds just a week ago were much more attractive, but the drop in price is certainly warranted.
De Minaur has served better to start this year than we've ever seen before, and he's added some new elements to his game like the backhand slice down the line which have stifled some opponents he's previously had a hard time beating. One of those opponents was Djokovic, who he beat at last week's United Cup — an official event which hands out ranking points and money. We always see de Minaur play his absolute best during the Aussie summer, and after breaking into the top 10 last week we can certainly say his best level may be even higher these days than it has traditionally been.
Can he beat Sinner, a player he's 0-6 against, in the quarters? It's a tall task, but using the energy from an Aussie crowd and some needed improvements I certainly think it's possible, especially when you factor in Sinner's poor record in Slam quarters. He should be capable of getting past Andrey Rublev in a potential fourth round match, given he's 3-2 against the Russian and Rublev looked pretty shaky at times in his recent win in Hong Kong, which came against a pretty weak field.
I recommend playing a little Tiafoe +1400 here as well. I as not too impressed with his level in Hong Kong, and think he will ultimately fall to Tomas Machac in the second round. With that said, coming off of a down year I would favor him against Sinner should he make it to the Fourth Round as a very hungry player with top 10 talent. Whoever is able to conquer Sinner should really win this quarter, in my eyes.
Quarter 3: Grigor Dimitrov (+400), Arthur Fils (+1200)
My confidence in Holger Rune seems to grow with every few months. The youngster seems destined to reside in the world's top three, and despite some tough wins in Brisbane last week I do think he looked really good. With that said, Rune could not have picked out a harder draw here if he tried.
The Dane will first be tested against a pesky first-round opponent in Yoshi Nishioka, and again against a giant killer in Laslo Djere, who is playing some excellent tennis. Should all that go according to plan, he will need to find a way past Roman Safiullin, who has looked excellent in the last six or seven months, or Arthur Fils, who is a fellow rising star with a ton of ability. I wouldn't have too many concerns about him in the next round against either Hubert Hurkacz, Ugo Humbert or Zizhen Zheng, but I do worry about him against Grigor Dimitrov.
Dimitrov is playing well enough right now to win this entire tournament. The former World No. 3 has looked better over the last four months that at any point of his career, which is saying a lot for a three-time Grand Slam semifinalist. Rune threw everything at him in the Brisbane final, but Dimitrov did not relent in what was a supremely impressive victory. It seems his confidence, which has long held him back over the last five years, is sky-high, and physically he has shown no signs of declining.
He may not be a sexy pick at the age of 32, but he has legitimately been one of the eight best players in the world dating back to the end of last year and should have the goods to take out Daniil Medvedev here should they meet in the fourth round. He's taken out Medvedev twice in their last five meetings, presenting a very difficult play style for the Russian to solve with his backhand slice and net play, and without any form an early exit for Med is not impossible.
I'll sprinkle a little on Fils here, too, because we saw a young talent go deep into a Slam last year out of nowhere not once but twice. That second-round encounter with Safiullin will be tricky, but I do think Fils is playing some pretty good tennis at the moment and the match wins he has under his belt already in 2024 should pay dividends.
Quarter 4: Jack Draper (+1100)
Finally, we have reached the Carlos Alcaraz quarter. Can the two-time Grand Slam champ do something he's never done before and reach the Fourth Round in Australia?
Well, I'd be dumb to say that he can't. He has more ability on a tennis court than anyone in the world. With that said, the book seemed to be out on him last year as he stumbled to the finish line at the end of the year, and we haven't sen him since he went 2-2 at the year-end finals last November. It doesn't matter how good they are, it's always tough to handicap a player with no form, so the price here once again gives me pause and smells incredibly fishy to me.
I really don't foresee many issues for Alcaraz prior to the Fourth Round, where he'll likely face either Tommy Paul or Jack Draper — two players that can absolutely beat him. With that said, given the history with Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud, I don't see anyone in the top half of this draw challenging Carlos very much. I do ultimately think he will win this quarter, but I wouldn't bet on it at this number.
I'll throw a quarter unit on Jack Draper +1100 here instead. He's gotten more aggressive with his play in recent months, and physically he looks amazing, most notably dusting Paul this week just a day after spending over three hours on court in a marathon win over a tough Miomir Kecmanovic. He has top-five talent with his incredible defense and shotmaking, and eventually he'll break through. Whether that'll come here against an established Alcaraz is a very fair question, as is asking whether or not he has enough in the tank to play more than three best-of-five matches at his top level with all his fitness concerns. Still, if you're to bet anyone here, he has to be the one.
Outrights: Djokovic (+100), Dimitrov (+4000)
I'd love to throw de Minaur into the mix here, too, but the price has really gotten out of control for a guy who will have to come up with two top 10 wins before a potential semifinal matchup with Djokovic. Sure, he beat him last week, but Djokovic did look flat in that match and almost always dominates a player who's beaten him in their next meeting. It makes more sense to play him to win his quarter than it does to take him outright, given Djokovic should really have no issues reaching the semis.
Dimitrov is the guy here if you want a long shot. As I mentioned above, this is a man who's made three Grand Slam semifinals in his career, is ranked No. 3 in the world and has arguably never looked as good as he does now. He's in the right half of the draw to continue playing magical tennis, and he won't have to face Djokovic until the final, at which point you'll have the chance to hedge off of this number. Keep in mind, when betting tennis outrights — especially when Djokovic is involved — that you're really just hoping to ride the ticket into the final before hedging.
For my money, he should be one of the four likeliest players to win this tournament by the odds. Djokovic, too, should be a little bit shorter than the +100 price we're seeing.
Without any real landmines in his way until the semis, I don't believe any of these players will stop Djokovic from winning a remarkable 25th Grand Slam. You'll hear plenty of talk in the coming days about a wrist injury he picked up at the United Cup, but it's incredibly minor in nature. If anything, you can rest on the fact that at nearly every Grand Slam he's won over the last five years he's had some sort of physical ailment which has never prevented him from raising his level in the big moments and conquering every player in his path.
I think these will be the two finalists when it's all said and done in a couple of weeks, so getting both at plus money is incredibly exciting.
