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We have more fourth round action at the Australian Open on Sunday evening, and while I hated the underdogs on Saturday I love them on this Sunday slate.
Let's go through two battle-tested, yet undervalued players to win their matches and advance to the quarterfinals.
Read below for my analysis of the Australian Open odds, with picks and predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Australian Open Odds, Picks & Predictions
Holger Rune (-135) vs. Andrey Rublev (+110)
10:30 p.m. ET
It's time we put some respect on Andrey Rublev's name, at least when it comes to hardcourt Grand Slams. Frances Tiafoe has had his number in the last few years, as has former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev, but other than this guy has been nearly impossible to take out at the Australian Open and US Open.
Rublev's win over Dan Evans — someone who had taken him out three out of the last times five they met on a hard court — was downright impressive. He fought through some frustration brought on by the brilliant defense of Evans and was able to remain composed under pressure. His backhand, which has long been talked about as his weakest wing, looked to be a weapon at times. Best of all, though, was his second serve.
That's right. The second serve of Rublev, which has clearly been the thing which has held him back most through the years, was working to perfection. He won 67% of his points behind it. According to the world feed that was one of his 10 best performances ever on the second deal.
Rublev should be the favorite here. He has much more experience at this level than Rune, and all three opponents he's beaten are better than the crop that the young Dane has run through.
This isn't to say Rune is bad, or should be a sizable underdog, but there is a ton of value to me in taking Rublev at plus money. He's been doubted at Grand Slams for years now, and he rarely suffers a bad loss.
Pick: Rublev ML (+110 via DraftKings)
Roberto Bautista Agut (-115) vs. Tommy Paul (-105)
12 a.m. ET
While Paul is a slight favorite at DraftKings, you can still find him as the underdog at most sites — and that's just flat-out wrong.
What are oddsmakers clinging to here with Bautista Agut? The man is now 34-years old and his best tennis is nearly four years behind him. This match will be his first Round of 16 match since his brilliant 2019 season, and it came thanks to a massive upset by Andy Murray and subsequent fatigue. He's arguably the man who's done the least to get to this point.
Bautista Agut was mopped up by Paul the last time they met, which was last year at the Masters 1000 event in Canada. Paul has continued to get better as the years have gone on, and Bautista Agut worse, so the previous four wins by the Spaniard aren't as worrying to me here.
The bigger factor is the pace that Paul can bring. He has showcased the ability to hit through his opponents, most recently in a decisive win over Jenson Brooksby, and should be able to hang just fine in the long rallies with Bautista Agut.
Paul's win over Bautista Agut came as the American served at just 58%, and he's been at or around 70% through his first three matches. With some extra free points off the serve and some blistering groundies, Paul is the clear favorite to me.
Pick: Paul ML (-105 via Caesars)
