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We're on to our first Friday at the Australian Open, and I think the underdogs will continue to bark as Round 3 rolls on.
I've got my eyes on two relentless competitors who simply aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.
Read below for my analysis of the Australian Open odds and predictions.
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Australian Open Odds & Predictions
Andrey Rublev (-390) vs. Dan Evans (+295)
8:15 p.m. ET
These two men have met a total of eight times in their professional careers, and each of them has won four times. With that said, Evans has won three out of the last four matches they've played on hard courts, and he also owns wins in each of the two hardcourt matches they played at the Masters 1000 level.
Head-to-head isn't the end all-be all in handicapping tennis, but it does help us get a bit of a sense of how matches will go. On top of that, you can expect the Brit to enter this match brimming with confidence knowing full well that he's had his opponent's number over the last few years in these situations.
Part of the reason Evans has been so successful against Rublev is his backhand slice. The backhand of Rublev is his biggest weakness, and by keeping the ball low he makes life incredibly difficult on the Russian.
It's hard to get a sense for the form of both men given they haven't played a ton of matches this season, but to me Evans produced a level which was absolutely passable in his recent losses to Frances Tiafoe and Mackenzie McDonald. Against Tiafoe, he generated a whole host of break points, and against McDonald he was hit off the court by a player who's been bringing a great level this month.
This is a very even match with Rublev's intense aggression easily neutralized by the all-world defense of Evans and the ability for the Brit to think quickly on his feet. He has no business being an underdog of these proportions and should have a very fair shot of winning outright.
Pick: Evans +5.5 Games (-115 via DraftKings)
Tommy Paul (-145) vs. Jenson Brooksby (+120)
10:30 p.m. ET
When Jenson Brooksby failed to serve out the biggest win of his career on national television just a couple days ago, he doubled over and gasped for air. As medical experts raced to Twitter to call the match over for the American, Brooksby quickly took some deep breaths, drank some pickle juice and went right back to work in an easy defeat of Casper Ruud.
The level of physicality that Brooksby brings to a match certainly can catch up to him in a hurry, but to this point in his career he's had no issues handling matches in a best-of-five setting. In fact, he's actually showcased much better fitness than anyone would have expected out of someone with just a couple of years worth of experience.
At the 2021 US Open, he played a physical four-set match against Mikael Ymer which went late into the night, he took out Taylor Fritz in four and came back from 2-1 down to win a five-setter against Aslan Karatsev. After all that, he stepped onto Arthur Ashe for the first time and wiped the floor with Novak Djokovic in a 6-1 first set before ultimately Djokovic then flipped the match and dominated.
The bottom line here is that I have no physical concerns about Brooksby and suspect that his price has drifted a bit due to his issues in Wednesday's third set.
Assuming both men are feeling fine, I'd make Brooksby the favorite. While Paul did take him out in Cincinnati in their only meeting, it came among a cold spell for Brooksby last season. The youngster is playing at a much better level thus far in 2023, and on the other side of things I simply haven't been impressed with Paul through four matches this month.
Brooksby should be able to out-scheme his fellow countryman with his superior tennis IQ and win the mental war of attrition. I'd make Brooksby a slight favorite here based on form, so I see a pretty solid edge in taking him to win this match.
Pick: Brooksby ML (+120 via PointsBet)
