The 2023 tennis season has already gotten underway, but the unofficial beginning will take place next week in Melbourne at the Australian Open.
There are tons of storylines to bring into this tournament.
Novak Djokovic has been allowed back into the country, and he's already hoisted a trophy and sent a message to the rest of the Tour. Nick Kyrgios is looking to capitalize on a career-changing 2022 and lift his first ever Grand Slam trophy in his home country. Daniil Medvedev lost in last year's final and can exact some revenge in conditions he loves.
There are an abundance of things to follow, and it'll be captivating to watch. Let's break down how to bet all of the quarters, and who would be a good investment in the futures market.
Australian Open Odds & Predictions
Quarter 1
Our top seed here is Rafael Nadal, and it brings me no pleasure to say that this is the lowest I've ever been on him entering a Grand Slam.
For starters, he enters Melbourne on a two-match losing streak. Then, you have to consider the fact that he'll face Jack Draper in round one, a 21-year old from England who's brought his ranking up to No. 40 in the and, for my money, is one of the 20 best players in the world at the moment.
Nadal could be in another tough spot if he faces Frances Tiafoe, the man who knocked him out of the US Open, in the quarters.
With that, this is absolutely Medvedev's quarter. He's been looking dangerous so far in Australia and while he's not my favorite bets to win it all, he should have no issues dispatching of Nadal, Tiafoe or Hubert Hurkacz in this quarter.
Medvedev is absolutely filthy in quick conditions, and there are few hard courts which will play as fast as these in Melbourne. That's particularly true given that the players will be hitting Dunlop balls, which happen to be Medvedev's favorite.
Best Bet: Medvedev +100 via PointsBet
Quarter 2
This is my favorite quarter. On the top, we have a hungry Stefanos Tsitsipas who has opened up his 2023 season with an extraordinary level of tennis. On the bottom, we have Felix Auger-Aliassime, who was the hottest player in the world to end the 2022 season and will have his sights set on winning his first-ever Grand Slam.
Who might wait for them if they reach the Round of 16? Oh, just Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie, respectively.
The winner of this quarter will have earned it with so many intriguing names in here, but with all that parity it becomes tough to find any sort of value. I'm passing here, with a slight nod to Norrie sitting there at +600.
Best Bet: Leave
Quarter 3
This is Djokovic's quarter, and Djokovic's tournament. He's looked unstoppable for the better part of a year, winning the most titles on tour last season despite playing in just 14 tournaments, and had his Wimbledon win counted for any ranking points would have finished No. 2 in the world. This season, he's come out with a rocket strapped to his back, beating a murder's row of opponents to win in Adelaide.
With that said, Kyrgios looks to be the one man here who could eliminate the nine-time Aussie Open champ. After all, he's beaten him twice on hard courts before and fears no player when he steps on a tennis court. Last season was the best of his career, and a Grand Slam title which once seemed impossible now seems like an inevitability again.
I think Kyrgios has a better chance here to make the semifinals than the odds imply. I feel pretty good about projecting a Kyrgios-Djokovic quarterfinal, and if that happens this price will be chopped in half, at least.
Kyrgios has nearly pulled off some massive wins at the Australian Open in the last two seasons with no training and no fitness to speak of. Now, he'll step on the court focused on winning the tournament, with plenty of work done over the last year to prepare him for a long run.
Make no mistake, I'm not telling you Kyrgios is going to beat Djokovic, or even make the quarterfinal. This is simply a smart investment given I'd probably set him around +275.
Best Bet: Kyrgios +450 via PointsBet
Quarter 4
It feels surreal to say Taylor Fritz is the favorite to make the semifinal at a Grand Slam, but here we are. Despite the fact that he's the eighth seed next week, the American currently sits at +275 to win the quarter – better than World No. 3 Casper Ruud at +425.
This is the correct price. Fritz looked like a madman at last week's United Cup and has improved with every passing month. The draw seems to have broken well for him, too, given Alex Zverev is a shell of himself and Diego Schwartzman looks ready to play at the Challenger level pretty soon.
The one man who might derail Fritz could be 20-year-old American Ben Shelton, who has risen very quickly into the top 100 and should be incredibly dangerous on these fast surfaces. They've never played each other, and Fritz has had some issues at Grand Slams with other young Americans who he's never played (Jenson Brooksby, Brandon Holt).
That's the only bad thing I can say about Fritz at the moment with how well he's played. With that, though, I do think there's a little value on playing someone else here in the draw given I don't think books are respecting Shelton and/or Miomir Kecmanovic enough, given we've seen the latter give Fritz fits in the past.
Look to Matteo Berrettini, who looked for all the world to be lost last season after getting injured, coming back and proceeding to collapse against Ruud at the US Open. This season, he's looked dangerous as ever on these courts in Australia which always play fast, particularly with these Dunlop balls. Berrettini made the semis here last year and he can do it again.
Best Bet: Matteo Berrettini +550 via BetMGM
Outright Bets
For many years, it seemed foolish to play men's outrights at Grand Slams given we were pretty certain of who would win going into the tournament. The US Open last year was a nice breath of fresh air, but I think we're back to the old days.
Djokovic looks like the winner here. I briefly glossed over his insane 2022 season and his run to start 2023, but the results are something to behold. His win in Adelaide was impressive from beginning to end, starting with the incredibly solid Frenchmen Constant Lestienne and Quentin Halys and ending with the likes of Denis Shapovalov, Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Korda.
The Serbian has proven that he is better than Medvedev many times over now, and it's pretty clear that his loss to Medvedev at the US Open two years ago was due to the nerves of going for a calendar Grand Slam and nothing else.
Djokovic should get through Kyrgios, and if that happens he'll be the runaway favorite. Because of that, though, I do like sprinkling a bit on the Aussie here. Kyrgios has been capable of some pretty extraordinary things in front of this Australian crowd, and given the tight nature of their Wimbledon match it's not inconceivable he could defeat the 21-time Grand Slam champion.
A bet on Djokovic is your best investment, but if you're looking for some significant value I'd go with Kyrgios. He really should have the second-best odds to win this tournament.
Best Bets: Novak Djokovic -110 via DraftKings | Nick Kyrgios +1600 via FanDuel
Pick: Nick Kyrgios +1600 |
