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Here is my analysis and Australian Open picks and predictions on Saturday, Jan. 20, including Fritz vs Tsitsipas and De Minaur vs Rublev.
The fourth round of the Australian Open gets underway on Saturday night here in the States, and with that I'm looking at two under-appreciated underdogs to get the job done and move one step closer to achieving a big milestone in their young careers.
Let's get into how to bet these matches.
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Australian Open Picks & Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-145) vs Taylor Fritz (+120)
9:30 p.m. ET
The first match of the day in the men's draw will feature a tantalizing match between two players who resided inside the world's top 10 for most of the 2023 season when Taylor Fritz takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas for a spot in the corner. Though Fritz has historically had some trouble breaking through to the quarterfinals in the Grand Slams throughout his career, I'm expecting an inspired performance on Saturday night.
First off, it's hard to hold Fritz to the same standards as the rest of the top 12 players given his game has really only been at a top-12 level for two seasons. Aside from a first-round loss at the US Open a couple of seasons ago to Brandon Holt, he's run into some tough draws in the hardcourt slams and has more or less done a good job of winning matches he should in short order.
Fritz has looked pretty good so far to start the 2024 season, producing a solid level through a couple of weeks in Australia, and he'll now be in a matchup which should favor him.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to use his powerful forehand to find a way through a couple of defensive-minded players in recent rounds, but this opponent will be quite different. Fritz will not attempt to come to the net much here, instead attempting to overpower the Greek himself from the back of the court. I think this is a trickier matchup, and given the head-to-head here has been incredibly competitive over the last couple of years, Fritz is live to win this match.
I'd also note that, although Tsitsipas has silenced many of the concerns about the back injury which ended his 2023 season, it did appear he was tiring late in his third-round match which could be a result of a very short training period for the Australian Open. Fritz will certainly hang around here and make this a long, physical match, and in such an encounter he may be able to be the fitter of the two late.
Pick: Fritz ML (+120)
Andrey Rublev (-125) vs Alex de Minaur (+105)
3 a.m. ET
To cap off the night, we will hear the crowd inside Rod Laver Arena roar for their newly-anointed Australian top-10 player in Alex de Minaur. Coming off a brilliant Untied Cup which saw him take out Novak Djokovic in impressive fashion, expectations are high — and I think de Minaur will rise to the occasion.
The World No. 10 has traditionally produced his best tennis in Australia, and he's traditionally produced it against Andrew Rublev, too. He owns the career head-to-head here 3-2, perhaps due to the fact that his expert defending frustrates the powerful Rublev in the same way as we see it bother him when he faces Daniil Medvedev.
Rublev's come out firing in 2024 with seven wins in seven matches, and while his serving has been superb at times he's also thrown in plenty of poor service games. He can't afford to do that against an expert returner like De Minaur.
The Russian really struggled against a speedster who could get plenty of balls across the net in Hong Kong when he faced Jerry Shang, and this matchup could prove to be just as difficult. The difference here, though, is that de Minaur will be good enough to capitalize on the chances he's given and take this one across the finish line, particularly at his home slam.
Pick: de Minaur ML (+110)
