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Here is my analysis and Australian Open picks on Friday, Jan. 19, including Auger-Aliassime vs Medvedev and Zverev vs Michelsen.
We begin the third round of play in Melbourne, and with that the decisions become tougher as to where the best value on the card lies. I'm targeting an undervalued former top-10 player and an upstart American to showcase their abilities on Friday.
Let's get into how to bet these matches in my Australian Open picks today.
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Australian Open Picks Today
Daniil Medvedev (-500) vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (+360)
3 a.m. ET
Felix Auger-Aliassime had a career breakthrough in 2022, going from a guy who was winless in seven career ATP finals to a four-time winner. He failed to live up to the same level in 2023, but with an encouraging close to the season and a couple of wins under his belt here at the Australian Open, I think the Canadian's game is in a much better place than many think.
Though he's never been able to solve Daniil Medvedev in their six career meetings, Auger-Aliassime had the match of his life right here in Melbourne against Medvedev when he took a 2-0 lead over the eventual Australian Open finalist before eventually succumbing to the Russian's expert defense.
In theory, this isn't a favorable matchup for the error-prone Canadian, but some fatigue could certainly come into play for Medvedev, who was already looking tired prior to his 3 a.m. finish against Emil Ruusuvuori in round two, and a player who seemed to look a bit rusty in the first round against a player outside of the world's top 100.
Without any matches leading up to the Australian Open, and potentially some sleep deprivation, I think it's fair to question whether Medvedev is in the kind of shape to be winning this match without any sort of issues. Auger-Aliassime played the Russian very closely the last time they met, which was last year in Doha, and with the added variance of a best-of-five match I don't think this is a very fair price on him to nick a set off of Medvedev.
Pick: Auger-Aliassime +2.5 sets (-150)
Alexander Zverev (-650) vs Alex Michelsen (+450)
4:30 a.m. ET
For whatever reason — be it his off the court litigation or perhaps some fatigue after digging incredibly deep at this month's United Cup, Alexander Zverev isn't quite looking himself right now. He's been flat through his first two matches, looking flat and a bit foggy in the head. He's allowed far inferior players such as Dominik Koepfer and Lukas Klein to really push him at this event, and against a fast-rising American I don't think this match will be any different.
Alex Michelsen, at the ripe age of 19, is blossoming before our eyes. He's always packed an incredible punch on his serve, but he's found a way to come up with incredible stuff from the back of the court, cracking winners and finding brilliant passing shots off of both wings. I think his game is really rounding into shape here in Melbourne, and he should put Zverev to a real test.
Zverev has already dropped three sets here in Melbourne through two rounds, and he dropped four matches through four rounds at last year's US Open before an eventual straight-sets defeat against Carlos Alcaraz. There's nothing here suggesting he'll be able to make it through this one cleanly, particularly with the way Michelsen is playing.
Pick: Michelsen +2.5 sets (-130)
