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I hate how many favorites I've been backing the last few days, but when you get down to this part of a grand slam, you have one of the elite players in men's tennis in nearly every single matchup.
The separation between them and the rest of the field is rather distinct and it's because of how well they matchup with almost anyone outside of their fellow top-tier players on tour.
Let's take a lot at two well-rounded favorites who have a great case to move on in swift fashion on Sunday night.
Find picks for Daniil Medvedev vs Nuno Borges and Alexander Zverev vs Cam Norrie in my latest Sunday Australian Open picks.
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Australian Open Odds & Picks
Daniil Medvedev (-2500) vs Nuno Borges (+1000)
9:30 p.m. ET
I have managed to avoid being burned by Borges since fading him in the opening round with Maximilian Marterer. The first ever Portuguese pro to reach the fourth round of the Happy Slam has been on a tear, dropping just one set through three matches. Not many others can make that claim.
That said, it ends now.
Borges' serve has certainly improved in the last 12 months or so. It's something I notice particularly in the fall, and with the quicker conditions in Australia, it isn't surprising that it has carried over to the start of the 2024 campaign.
Even so, however, he's still holding serve at a rate of 79%. That's not bad, per se, but it's far from being where some of the best servers are. His break rate still sits below 20% and he is still below 75% backing up his first serve. Throw in the fact that he's won four of the five tiebreaks he's played and there's reason to look at the data and expect some major regression.
Now, let's factor in the opponent. Medvedev is obviously the best player he's had to play to this point. He's also the most consistent, reliable player, the best returner and likely the best server as well.
This is still the same Borges that was crushed by a well-rounded Arthur Fils and Pavel Kotov leading into the Australian Open. With a decent returner on the other side of the net, I'm not sure Borges manages more than three to four games in any single set and I have Medvedev putting up a double break set or two on the 26-year-old.
Pick: Medvedev -8.5 games (+118 via PointsBet)
Alexander Zverev (-330) vs Cam Norrie (+265)
12 p.m. ET
Surprise, surprise, another favorite that I really like to cover the spread on Sunday night.
Thing is, Zverev matched up so well with a relatively underpowered Alex Michelsen, whose strengths are precision and shotmaking – two things Zverev can easily neutralize with his defending, movement and wing span.
Norrie's biggest strengths? The exact same. Not to mention, this may be one of the few times where a lefty forehand is actually at a disadvantage in crosscourt rallies with a right-handed backhand.
Norrie, much like Michelsen, doesn't really have the weapons to hurt Zverev or win him cheap points when the big German is in a groove on serve. His forehand breaks down a little too often and due to the compact nature of his backswing, the backhand doesn't really generate much pace – something you'd probably want in your arsenal to help rush Zverev's weaker wing; the forehand.
With Zverev also having a gargantuan edge on serve, I'm surprised that this spread isn't north of six games. Five seems like a steal, and I'll happily back Zverev once again this round against in a similar matchup he dominated in the third round.
Pick: Zverev -4.5 games (-120 via DraftKings)
