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Here is my analysis and Australian Open picks and predictions on Wednsday, Jan. 17, including Kemcanovic vs Struff and Rune vs Cazaux.
We continue the second round of play in Melbourne, and I'm seeing value on two interesting matches.
Let's get into how to bet these matches in my Australian Open predictions today.
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Australian Open Predictions Today
Miomir Kecmanovic (-155) vs Jan-Lennard Struff (+125)
9 p.m. ET
We need to give Miomir Kecmanovic his flowers already. Once a blue-chip tennis prospect out of Serbia, we've seemed to forget all about him with so many exciting young talents rising to prominence and shooting up ahead of him in the world rankings.
Still just 24, Kecmanovic has a lot to prove on tour and seems as motivated as ever to do so in 2024. He's been unfortunate to run into some mammoth levels so far this season, getting hit off the court by Frances Tiafoe in Hong Kong and losing a tough-luck three-setter in Adelaide to Jack Draper which lasted nearly four hours.
Kecmanovic is absolutely smoking the ball right now and looks just as dangerous on the hard courts as he did back in 2022. That season, he lost a tight one to Aslan Karatsev in Sydney the week before the Australian Open only to pick up wins over Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Sonego en route to the fourth round of the tournament. From there, we saw him reach the quarterfinals at Indian Wells and Miami, where he nearly took out eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in a deciding tiebreak.
The Serb's form is very reminiscent of his play early that season, and with that I'm going to look to bet him as long as oddsmakers continue to underestimate his play. Jan-Lennard Struff is a very capable player on the other side of the net, but he really seemed to wane physically in his epic five-set clash against Rinky Hijikata in the first round, finding a third wind very late and narrowly escaping.
The German is off to a so-so start here in 2024 and that follows a brutal end to 2023 which saw him drop seven of his last 10 matches. I am a big fan of Struff and think he can produce a pretty special level when he's in rhythm, but I'm not totally sure he's at the peak of his powers here.
Kecmanovic, meanwhile, looks as good as ever and I think he should negotiate this win in relatively short order.
Pick: Kecmanovic ML (-155)
Holger Rune (-700) vs Arthur Cazaux (+500)
3 a.m. ET
If you're not familiar with Arthur Cazaux, you should get acquainted prior to Thursday morning's showdown with World No. 8 Holger Rune.
The Frenchman has battled his way through the lower levels of tennis for the last couple of years to reach the big time, and he's quickly showing some of the more established veterans in the game just how well he can battle from the baseline.
Cazaux is just 21 years of age and is fresh off of a big win on the Challenger Tour just a couple of weeks ago which saw him beat some talented players without dropping a set in his final three matches. He carried that momentum forward into the first round when he dispatched a good baseliner in Laslo Djere, and with six wins in six matches to start things off here he'll come into the biggest match of his career brimming with confidence.
Negotiating a win over Rune is a very tall task for a newcomer, even if Rune is just 21-years old, and I do think Cazaux will ultimately fall short against one of the best in the world. With all of that said, Rune's level has certainly been very up and down throughout all of his matches this season and Cazaux should be able to negotiate a set.
There's some magic in the Frenchman's racquet, and he should be able to match Rune in the shot-making department at least briefly in this encounter. I think this one should be highly entertaining, and with that I'll go ahead and grab the over.
Over 35.5 games (-105)
