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The Australian Open gets underway on Saturday, beginning a day earlier than normal with a short slate of matches in both draws. That's right, it's that time of year to adjust your sleep schedule and stay up watching some of the best players in the world compete for one for one of the biggest prizes in tennis.
Let's get into how to bet Tiafoe vs Coric and Kotov vs Rinderknech. Here are my Australian Open picks today.
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Australian Open Picks Today
Frances Tiafoe (-190) vs Borna Coric (+155)
Sunday, 4:15 a.m. ET
Save for some magic at last year's inaugural United Cup and an Australian Open quarterfinal five years ago, Tiafoe has traditionally been a very slow starter at the beginning of the year. He's yet to make it out of the third round since his breakthrough Australian Open in 2019, going 4-4 in his last four trips to Melbourne.
Tiafoe is coming off of what has to be considered a disappointing 2023 following the biggest achievement of his career at the 2022 US Open, and while he's done well to maintain a top-20 ranking over the last calendar year it's hard to say we've really seen his best tennis ever since we saw him push Carlos Alcaraz to five sets in his first career Grand Slam semifinal appearance.
The thing is, Tiafoe could not have asked for a worse opponent to draw in the first round here. Coric may have just a couple of matches under his belt since ending his season early due to injury last August, but he remains one of the toughest customers on the ATP Tour. He will do well on his own serve and devastate with his forehand, and even when he's not at his best he will grind from the baseline and force his opponents to produce spectacular tennis.
His win over World No. 28 Tallon Griekspoor a week and change ago was an impressive one, as he showcased his ability to win the first set in spite of a so-so level before turning up the heat in the second. He seems for all the world to be back to the level we grew accustomed to seeing in the last year and a half, which saw him capture a Masters title in Cincinnati.
Tiafoe, meanwhile, is stumbling into Melbourne after being upset by Jerry Shang in the second round of Hong Kong and dropping two exhibition matches to poor competition. While exhibitions can be easy to throw away when handicapping, they do closely mirror a real match this early in the season when players are desperate to build form, and Tiafoe not only looked mediocre in these defeats, he looked downright awful.
With five losses in his last six matches dating back to Vienna, Tiafoe can't be feeling all that great about his tennis at the moment. Coric should win the mental war of attrition here and win plenty of baseline exchanges and have the American on upset alert. This is an excellent number to play.
Pick: Coric ML (+155 via DraftKings)
Pavel Kotov (-145) vs. Arthur Rinderknech (+120)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Casual tennis fans may not know the name Pavel Kotov, and for that reason he may get overlooked in this match. Now ranked No. 64 in the world, it's hard to call the Russian over-ranked given his unbelievable fighting spirit and his world-class forehand, which he hits with excellence on the run.
Kotov had a couple of nice wins to start the year in Hong Kong over Nuno Borges and Lorenzo Musetti before eventually falling to Emil Ruusuvuori in the quarters in a very close match, and that is just a continuation of what we've seen out of him ever since the end of last year.
He graduated from the ATP Challenger ranks quite quickly by coming through qualifying in Stocklhom to defeat a loaded field en route to the final, and he followed that up with a semifinal appearance in Sofia. For the last three months, Kotov has been playing some special tennis, and I expect him to showcase that on one of the biggest stages in tennis this week.
Rinderknech is the player here who has achieved more in his career with a career-high ranking of 42 in the world, but after a losing season in 2023 he's done little to restore any confidence in his game with just two wins over players outside the world's top 250 in his four matches.
Rinderknech has reverted back to the player we saw prior to his breakthrough which is someone who makes far too many errors from the back of the court and relies on his serve to bail him out. The Texas A&M Aggie hasn't had his best level in over a year now, and against a great returner and a player who can win plenty of points with his forehand, I don't see it happening here on Saturday out of nowhere.
Kotov should be a much heavier favorite here and I'll gladly lay the sets with him as a result.
Pick: Kotov -1.5 sets (+100)
