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Here's everything you need to know about Australian Open Picks on Monday, Jan. 15 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today, including Zapata Miralles vs Lehecka and McDonald vs Shang.
The first round of the Australian Open concludes on Monday with the remaining matches in the bottom half of the men's draw, and like Sunday there should be plenty of money-making opportunities. I've got my eyes on one of the biggest underdogs of the tournament to this point and a rising young Chinese star.
Let's get into how to bet Zapata Miralles vs Lehecka and McDonald vs Shang. Here are my Australian Open picks today.
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Australian Open Picks Today
Bernabe Zapata Miralles (+1040) vs Jiri Lehecka (-1700)
7 p.m. ET
We've officially reached a tipping point when it comes to oddmakers' love for Jiri Lehecka. The 22-year old is certainly talented, possessing a big serve and some massive groundstrokes, but the times we've seen the Czech put it all together with consistency are few and far between.
Yes, Lehecka is fresh off of his first title win in Adelaide and yes he did beat a high-quality opponent in the final when he took out Jack Draper in three sets. For me, however, this was a classic case of a wacky 250 win just days before a Grand Slam, where players' minds are all over the place. He was fortunate to face two poor opponents through two rounds, he received gift after gift from Nico Jarry in what was an ugly match, and Sebastian Korda looked like he didn't want to be playing tennis when he was destroyed in a short semifinal.
Lehecka can certainly play some ball when he raises his level, but as a young player he has the tendency to play down to his competition.
Enter Bernabe Zapata Miralles, a career clay-court specialist who has spent the majority of his time fighting just to make it to the second round on the main tour level. While the perception of him may be that he lacks the weapons to hang with someone like Lehecka, he hits his forehand a lot harder than people give him credit for and he's been a pest to play on hard courts, notably taking Tommy Paul to five sets at the 2022 US Open.
Will Zapata actually pull off this upset? I'm not holding my breath, but I do think this line is somewhat ridiculous. The Spaniard's defense should produce a ton of errors off of the Lehecka racquet, and even in a straight-sets defeat he'll be capable of covering the games here.
Pick: Zapata Miralles +8.5 games (-125 via FanDuel)
Mackenzie McDonald (+130) vs Jerry Shang (-152)
10:30 p.m. ET
This should be one of the most fun matches of the first round, bringing together an expert baseliner and a talented teenager who seemed to blossom before our eyes a couple of weeks ago in a run to the semifinals in Hong Kong.
In this one, I'm backing the better of the two players, rather than the one with all the experience. Yes, McDonald has historically been a tough customer in best-of-five matches, but Shang makes up for that with his incredible speed and shot-making ability. McDonald struggled last week as Miomir Kecmanovic relentlessly pounded forehands deep into the court, and the lefty Shang is plenty capable of doing the same, only this time working on the McDonald backhand.
I was incredibly impressed in Shang's victories to start the season, which came over three incredibly solid veterans in Frances Tiafoe, Botic Van De Zandschulp and Laslo Djere. He noted after the win over Tiafoe that he's begun to feel confident he can beat the best in the world, and he seemed to carry that over into his semifinal loss to Andrey Rublev which featured three tight sets and some chances for Shang to establish a lead in the second and third.
McDonald isn't near the caliber of opponent that Shang conquered in Hong Kong, and I have no issues laying the games here as a result.
Pick: Shang -2.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)
