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The 2024 tennis season is underway and our first Grand Slam of the year is here, as the Australian Open will open up on Saturday.
The 128 person draw gives plenty of players the chance to show up on the big stage and make a name for themselves. Here we will dive into two star players, Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev against two who are trying to stage a breakout, Facundo Diaz Acosta and Thiago Seyboth Wild.
It's anyones match once you step on the court, so dive in read how I see these matchups playing out. Here are my Australian Open predictions
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing Australian Open matches.
Taylor Fritz (-3000) vs Facundo Diaz Acosta (+1100)
12 a.m. ET
Taylor Fritz, the reigning American No. 1, enters the Australian Open looking for a reboot. His performance last year was subpar by his standards, and his ability to compete with the best may be in question. Especially towards the end of the season, Fritz was struggling to find the rhythm that saw him in the Nitto ATP Finals a year prior. With a new year underway, he has two matches under his belt at the United Cup, where he secured a 1-1 record. I believe his backhand is where he separates himself the most and it could be a crucial factor in this match, particularly against a left-handed player like Diaz Acosta.
Diaz Acosta, primarily a clay court specialist, faces a unique challenge. His expertise on clay doesn't necessarily translate seamlessly to hard courts, a surface he only appears on during the Grand Slams. The dynamic of this match is fascinating – Fritz's heavy and consistent hitting is a demanding test for any player and I don't think Diaz Acosta can adapt his game to counter Fritz's power on the hard courts.
The physical and mental endurance required to dominate a match across three sets in the Australian summer heat cannot be understated. For Diaz Acosta, the challenge is twofold: maintaining his mental fortitude while tackling the skill gap that exists between him and Fritz. The heat, an ever-present factor in the Australian Open, is likely to play a critical role in testing the players' focus.
Fritz's lethal serve paired with heavy and consistent play will apply non-stop pressure on Diaz Acosta. Although Fritz hasn't quite found his groove in Grand Slams and has struggled in the opening rounds various times, I think tomorrow will be a different story. I expect that Fritz will dominate the match, leaving Diaz Acosta no room to breathe.
Fritz owns the upper hand in every category on these Melbourne courts. The only question will be whether he remains focused for three straight sets. I believe he does, keeping his legs fresh and getting out of the heat quickly.
Pick: Under 29.5 games (+100 via DraftKings)
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Andrey Rublev (-8000) vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (+1600)
9:15 p.m. ET
Another matchup with a similar feel as the above, a world class top ranked player in Rublev against a primarily clay court-focused player in Seyboth Wild. However, I am not so sure this one pans out the same way as above.
Rublev, known for his explosive playing style, enters the Australian Open fresh off an opening year title in Hong Kong. His approach to the game is simple yet awe-inspiring: hit every ball with 100% effort. This intensity, while overwhelming for opponents when Rublev is in form, comes with its risks. His play style demands precise timing, and even slight inconsistencies can lead to periods of misfiring, making his game somewhat volatile. Rublev's challenge lies in maintaining his intensity without going through waves of errors.
On the other side of the net stands Seyboth Wild, a player who has not excelled on hard courts, but always brings passion and high-energy gameplay. Seyboth Wild brings a certain zeal to the court, a fire that fuels his competitive spirit. This energy, especially in the demanding conditions of the Australian heat, will be a weapon.
While Rublev can hit through anyone, Seyboth Wild will stick around and send back plenty of deep and heavy topspin shots, making it hard for Rublev to fire winners from the back of the court. In the sweltering Australian summer, endurance and focus are as crucial as talent. Seyboth Wild's ability to maintain his energy levels and exploit Rublev's potential lapses in focus could be key to his staying in the match longer than anticipated.
The outcome will hinge on Rublev's ability to maintain his focus and Seyboth Wild's capacity to sustain his energy throughout the match. Rublev could easily wipe the court with Seyboth Wild, but I don't see the Brazilian fading without a fight.
Pick: Seyboth Wild +8.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)
