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Here's everything you need to know about my Australian Open predictions today Wednesday, Jan. 17 including Michelsen vs Lehecka and Paul vs Draper.
The second round of the Australian Open rolls on as we hit Thursday in Melbourne, and the matchups in the men's draw are already getting very spicy. To kick things off, we'll take a look at an upstart American aiming for the biggest win of his career as well as an under-appreciated young talent.
Let's get into how to bet these matches in my best bets.
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Australian Open Predictions Today
Alex Michelsen (+280) vs Jiri Lehecka (-360)
7 p.m. ET
Kicking us off on Wednesday night is a tantalizing matchup between young American Alex Michelsen and last week's champion in Adelaide, Jiri Lehecka.
Michelsen is just 19 years of age, but we've already seen him put his big weapons to great use with a run to the final in Newport last season, and in all he won three titles down on the ATP Challenger Tour in what was an incredibly successful first full season as a pro. After picking up his first two career Grand Slam victories in the last two major tournaments we've had, Michelsen will now aim for the biggest win of his career when he takes on the World No. 23.
Lehecka has made a fast start to the season, rebounding from a couple of losses at the United Cup to reel off six straight victories which have taken him back into the second round here in Melbourne. Along the way, he's beaten some notable names like Sebastian Korda and Jack Draper, but might his form here be fool's gold?
The big-serving Czech wasn't really tested in the first round against an out-of-form and physically limited Bernabe Zapata Miralles, and like almost every title that comes the week before a Grand Slam his win over Adelaide wasn't exactly an incredible achievement. His wins looked good on paper, but every match featured plenty of poor play from top names.
Obviously, you don't reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal without some talent, and any win on the tour is an achievement unto itself. It's not that Lehecka is a bad player, per se, but at just 22 I still see a lot of things he can improve upon. His shot selection can be questionable and he drifts in and out of matches for time on end. Against a big hitter like Michelsen, I think these issues may come to the forefront as he's presented with very limited opportunities on return.
The Michelsen return is still pretty suspect at this stage of his career, so I do think he will struggle here against one of the bigger hitters in the top 30. With that being said, he's already proven to be solid under pressure in limited time on tour and I think he should be able to hang around in this match enough to cash the over. Expect a serving exhibition here as we head to at least one tiebreak.
Pick: Over 37.5 games (-105)
Tommy Paul (-135) vs Jack Draper (+115)
8:15 p.m. ET
This is a prime example of reading a line. Jack Draper is a player who has historically struggled with his fitness, and after finishing off American Marcos Giron in what was a gutsy five-set victory, he immediately ran to his bench to vomit. He had to endure so much physically, so why is he such a short underdog here against a top-15 player with some of the best cardio on tour?
Well, the answer is in the recent results for Draper. He was pushed nearly four hours in a three-set match against Miomir Kecmanovic, winning the physical war to set up a date with Paul less than 24 hours later. All he did from there was come out firing in the first set, taking out the American in straights for the second time in as many meetings.
Draper has been adamant that his fitness is in a better place as it was a year ago, and it's hard to argue with that given what we've seen so far this year and towards the very end of 2023. Even in the past at Grand Slams, Draper has been able to make a run to the fourth round multiple times with what he'd probably consider worse conditioning, and along the way he's been made to grind out matches in the extreme heat.
If we're to see another physical dip from Draper, you'd have to put your money on it coming during the first weekend considering his history in best-of-five competition, and the fact that he's been able to bounce back from grueling matches so far in 2024 is certainly a good sign as to where he's at right now.
This is already a pretty difficult matchup for Paul to begin with, as evidenced by Draper leading the head-to-head 2-0. He loves to pull his forehand across the court and create acute angles, but you simply cannot give the Brit a waist-high ball to crush with his backhand. This was an issue in the first round for Giron, who wasn't able to find any success when hitting to Draper's backhand, and there's also something to be said here for Paul being unsettled against one of the few in the world who are probably better at defending than he is.
I think Draper is flat-out better than Paul, and I'm willing to bet on his body being in better shape than it's been in years' past. He'll also get a day off in between matches for the first time in weeks, which surely helps him relax a bit.
Pick: Draper ML (+115)
