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The Australian Open rolls on as we hit Sunday night here in the United States, and after a relatively short slate on opening night in Melbourne we should be afforded a whole host of exciting matches to make money off of. As we wrap up the night, I've got my eye on an overlooked young American and a seasoned veteran to pick up big wins.
Let's get into how to bet Tabilo vs Kovacevic and Humbert vs Goffin. Here are my Australian Open predictions today.
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Australian Open Predictions Today
Alejandro Tabilo (-140) vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (+115)
11:30 p.m. ET
Tabilo is fresh off of a magical week in Auckland which saw him claim his first-ever title on the ATP Tour, and he will certainly garner plenty of support here from the betting public against a player who's yet to crack the top 100 in Kovacevic.
While the week in Auckland gave Tabilo the chance to demonstrate he's got excellent ability on a tennis court and big talent, it surely took a lot out of his gas tank given he had to come through qualifying to even make the main draw. He played seven matches in eight days and will now enter this match with just two days of rest.
Sure, you can make the argument that Tabilo's confidence has never been higher, but he drew a pretty tough qualifier here in Kovacevic, who should be able to pick apart the Tabilo backhand with his big forehand and limit his chances to break with his big serve.
Kovacevic didn't really run into a high level until he reached the final round of qualifying, but he was impressive in coming from a set down to take out a tough customer in young Shintaro Mochizuki. I think his best level is good enough to beat most players outside of the world's top 3o on his day, and with some tired legs on the other side of the net I expect the American to play his aggressive style of tennis, taking it to Tabilo and positioning himself for a long-awaited Grand Slam victory, something that's alluded him over the last year.
Pick: Kovacevic ML (+115 via DraftKings)
Ugo Humbert (-265) vs David Goffin (+210)
12 a.m. ET
Make no mistake about it, I am a big fan of Humbert and generally have had a fun time fading Goffin as he enters the late stages of his career at 33.
Generally speaking, though, the best times to back Humbert have been when there are no expectations on the young Frenchman, and similarly Goffin has had the tendency to crumble as a big favorite. On Sunday, the Belgian is the one with nothing to lose coming in as a relatively big dog to Humbert.
The former World No. 7 has done a great job this season of just getting a bunch of balls back into play and letting his opponents beat themselves, something that Humbert has had the tendency to do in his short career. Goffin has looked really good this season, winning five of his six matches when you include his run through qualifying, and he's beaten some absolute pests on the court and a big power player in Lloyd Harris, who has been in the midst of a career revitalization in the last few months.
I think Goffin has a much better chance to win this match than oddsmakers are giving him, and if you are a believer in playing numbers and not teams or players, this is the match for you. Goffin has always found a good level at the Grand Slams, and unlike his last two trips to Melbourne Park he won't have to face a hostile crowd or an expert baseliner. This is a great matchup for Goffin, and I expect him to continue where he left off late last year and build some form as he attempts to get back inside the world's top 50.
Keep in mind, too, that these two last met at Wimbledon in the summer of 2022, and on Humbert's favorite surface it was Goffin who came up with a decisive win in four sets.
Pick: Goffin ML (+215 via BetRivers)
