Sabalenka vs. Linette Odds
| Odds | -475 |
| Linette Odds | +340 |
| Over/Under | 20.5 |
| Time | How to Watch | 4:45 a.m. ET | ESPN+ |
| Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch the Australian Open, click here. | |
It is semifinal day for the women's draw at the Australian Open, as just three matches remain before a winner is crowned at Melbourne Park.
Let's delve into the second semifinal of the night, featuring Aryna Sabalenka and Magda Linette.
I provide my pick and evaluation of the odds below.
Sabalenka Putting it All Together
A fixture in the top 10 of the women's rankings for a few years now, Sabalenka has struggled to break through and finally claim her maiden Grand Slam title. In fact, she's still looking for her first ever final at a Slam – a hurdle she has a great chance of clearing in the wee hours of Thursday morning.
The start to 2023 has a distinctly different feel to it, however. Collapses from leading positions haven't happened, the double fault issue is down a bit (though it has risen in recent matches) and the egregious errors have also been reduced.
Unforced errors and mistakes are always going to exist in a game predicated so heavily on power serving and massive hitting from the baseline. It's just a matter of turning a few of those points given away into points won, and the Belarusian has done a nice job of that in her undefeated start to 2023.
Her second serve has taken a giant leap forward so far this year as well. She's gone from winning 42% of those points in 2022 to over 52% of them this season. As such, her numbers across the board are eye-popping, with a hold plus break number approaching 130.
Linette Looking to Keep Career Run Alive
Linette, on the other hand, hasn't quite stumbled upon this stage before because, well, she's never been anywhere near a Grand Slam semifinal to stumble over.
It's the first time the 30-year old has reached the second week at one of the Tour's biggest events, and she's making the most of it.
An impeccable combination of court coverage, counterpunching, precise shotmaking and game-planning for specific opponent weaknesses has allowed her to storm to never-before-seen levels.
She was able to adeptly move Karolina Pliskova around in the quarters, frustrating the tall Czech and leaving herself plenty of open space to hit through on a consistent basis.
Linette will need an even more effective strategy for Sabalenka if she hopes to reach the final.
Betting Value
Sabalenka may have seen the double faults creep back into her game last time out against Vekic, but I think this matchup suits her far more than it did Pliskova.
The Czech's groundstrokes didn't have as much power to them, which afforded Linette the time to push them back deep with topspin to reset points and get back to neutral footing. Further, Pliskova's movement was easily exploitable for someone who moves the ball around the court as well as the Pole does. Sabalenka doesn't have the same issues in that department.
Sabalenka should be able to end points far more quickly and take time away from Linette more effectively. If Linette is having trouble reaching her spots, she's in for a long day.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
