Thursday features the first of two ATP semifinals matchups, beginning at 3:30 a.m. ET on Thursday morning in North America — so you'll need to get your bets in early.
Let's examine today's matchup, the 50th career head-to-head meeting between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.
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Day 11 Australian Open Best ATP Bets
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Novak Djokovic (-684) vs. Roger Federer | O/U: 33
- Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Rod Laver Arena
- H2H: Djokovic leads 26-23
Betting Odds History (Since 2014)
Not only is Federer the biggest underdog that he's ever been against Djokovic – but he's also the biggest underdog of his entire career.
Match Analysis
Let's get the elephants in the room out of the way.
Federer played through a groin injury and survived seven match points in the quarterfinal against a choking Tennys Sandgren – before skipping training yesterday for relaxation and treatment.
The Swiss admitted to being lucky to survive that match with a victory and seemed somewhat unconfident that he'd be able to get up for this match against Djokovic.
His serve dropped from an average of 112 mph to 105 mph from the first set to the second set, while being out-aced, 27-5, and he has now played two grueling five-setters during the fortnight; getting lucky to survive each.
And on top of those fitness concerns, he needs to beat Djokovic in a best of five match on a hard court; something he hasn't done since the 2009 US Open.
The Serbian has been in-form throughout this tournament, particularly excelling in the areas (serving, winners) where Federer would typically have the edge.
While the speed on Federer's serve has declined, Djokovic has increased the speed of his second serve – and the improvement is paying dividends.
Is 48 hours enough time to recover to take on the best player in the world? At the age of 38, the answer is highly unlikely for Federer – his tank has to be running on empty.
And the new court conditions haven't suited him, and won't against Djokovic – as Federer couldn't get the pace that he needs on his shots to hit them by Sandgren – so a world-class returner like Djokovic is going to eat him up.
Federer may redline through the first set and keeps things competitive, but proceedings could get ugly in the later stages if the Swiss reverts to his form from the middle of that Sandgren match.
Notably, Federer has never retired from a match. As a result, betting either an over or Federer's game spread seems like a risky proposition – as Federer could quickly become gassed and get bageled, 6-0, to close things out.
I do like the under a bit, however, for the same reasons.
Federer may be able to keep the first set competitive, but his serve dropped off so much against Sandgren; it's hard to believe that his level could hold up for very long.
Djokovic will make that weaker serve pay more than the American could.
I bet the Serb to win in straight sets, and also wagered on Djokovic to win the ace battle against an ailing Federer.
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Bets (So Far) for Jan. 30
Odds swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Jan. 30.
- Novak Djokovic, +1.5 Aces (-110, 0.5 units)
- Novak Djokovic, -2.5 Sets (-130, 0.5 units)
[Bet the Australian Open now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]
