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Game on! The final week of the Australian Open is set, and the bottom half of the women's draw gets things going on Saturday night as we draw nearer to declaring a champion.
Let's check out a few matches that may be worth a look betting wise!
Find my best bets today, including Sabalenka vs Anisimova and Andreeva vs Krejcikova.
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Best Bets Today
Aryna Sabalenka (-500) vs Amanda Anisimova (+380)
9 p.m. ET
If there's anyone that can slow the world No. 2 down, I'd love to know who that is at the moment.
My goodness has she been on a tear. It really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, either. Not only is she the defending champion, but the conditions in Australia are absolutely perfect for her.
Sabalenka absolutely hits the cover off the ball with her serve and from the baseline, enjoys playing pacy rallies and she can put people on the back foot instantaneously on return with incredibly aggressive, powerful shots.
With the only player to look competitive against her so far down under (Elena Rybakina) now out after losing one of the best tiebreaks in Grand Slam singles history, I'm not sure anyone is going to touch the Belarusian.
That includes Anisimova, who has returned from a prolonged absence looking pretty strong.
She is also tall and packs a punch with her serve and from the baseline, so many may be inclined to believe in her ability to keep this one close. I am not one of those people.
Why?
I'm not sold yet on her fitness (which very well could lead to a lopsided set or two, which is key given the elevated spread), and as strong as her serve can be or may be after more match play, it simply isn't there yet. Her first serve win rate is sitting at under 62% – a mediocre number, at best – and her service hold rate is also under 62%. She's actually been far more reliant on her return game than I think anyone would have expected to this point.
That doesn't bode well when you're taking on one of the biggest servers in the women's game. Especially when that server doesn't really give up much on return and still breaks at an elite rate.
5.5 games may seem like a lot to lay against the American. It's worth remembering, however, that this isn't the bigger-serving Anisimova people may have in their minds from years past.
Pick: Sabalenka -5.5 games (-108 via FanDuel)
Mirra Andreeva (-215) vs Barbora Krejcikova (+175)
11:30 p.m. ET
One day I will win a bet either backing or fading Andreeva.
The phenom from Russia has put forth some great performances against really strong players, but also had some really tough battles against players that really shouldn't give her that much trouble on a given surface (see two matches against Tamara Korpatsch and last round's Houdini-like escape against Diane Parry).
That also means that trying to assess last match as any kind of barometer of her coming contest with Krejcikova feels like a fool's errand. I wouldn't put it past her to demolish a top-10 player, really struggle with a clay courter ranked 72nd in the world and then crush yet another top-15 opponent.
Heck, she's done it before (twice!) to Krejcikova. Now, I'm not the biggest head-to-head handicapper, but matchups matter and if there's a reason for a head-to-head record existing, I think there's obviously much more validity to incorporating it more heavily into one's handicap.
In this instance, you can understand why Andreeva hasn't lost more than three games in a set (out of four total sets played) to her Czech counterpart. Now, it's worth noting that one of those matches did end in a retirement from the 28-year old, but even without it, Andreeva has to love this matchup.
Krejcikova doesn't have the raw weapons to hit through her, or at least create more short, attackable balls. Then there's the fact that Krejcikova does tend to spew errors from time to time, netting a lot of balls from time to time. With Andreeva's rally tolerance being one of her biggest strengths, that doesn't bode well for the veteran.
I'll stick with Andreeva in this spot, even though she let me down on the under against Parry last time out.
Pick: Andreeva -3.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)
