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Alcaraz vs. Zverev Odds
| Alcaraz Odds | -450 |
| Zverev Odds | +330 |
| Over/Under | 36.5 |
| Time | 10:30 am ET |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Carlos Alcaraz will battle Alexander Zverev in the first match of the men's French Open quarterfinals.
Going into their fourth matchup, Zverev leads the head-to-head 2-1, but Alcaraz won the most recent and only match played on clay. He won in Madrid about three weeks ago 6-3, 6-1.
All three of their matches have been extremely one-sided with the loser not winning more than three games in a set.
Will we see another dominant showing by one or the other tomorrow?
Let's dive in.
Alcaraz Growing Stronger Each Round
After showing signs of weakness early on against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Alcaraz has yet to face pressure again.
In round two, Ramos-Vinolas was serving for the match with a match point before dumping a routine forehand into the net. That was all Alcaraz needed to catch fire and arrive in the quarterfinals.
Handing both Korda and Khachanov straight set defeats, Alcaraz has been on his game. Not only were they straight set victories, but Alcaraz was only broken once across the two matches.
With the new fan favorite producing endless highlight reels, he always gets the crowd roaring, leading to tons of energy on his side. That's served him well thus far in Paris.
Zverev Finding His Way Through
Zverev has had a deceivingly difficult time reaching the quarterfinals. In the second round against Sebastian Baez, he not only had to come back from two sets down, but he also saved a match point in the fifth set.
In the subsequent rounds, the matches were a lot closer than odds were predicting. Zverev looked particularly vulnerable on serve against Barnabe Zapata Miralles, a man he was favored by 8.5 games against.
Zapata Miralles broke Zverev six times across three sets, far more than the German would be hoping for.
Despite his struggles as a heavy favorite, Zverev has found his way through without producing his best tennis.
Betting Value
Alcaraz picked Zverev apart in the final of Madrid, surrendering zero break point opportunities and breaking Zverev four times.
Although this is a match where Zverev has experienced the pressure of the situation more than Alcaraz, it will be Alcaraz with the mental edge. Alcaraz has the determination and focus that we only see in players like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, and he has yet to look shaky on a big stage, such as the Madrid Final.
Zverev has been known to crumble on the big stage. Most notably, he struggled when serving for the US Open in 2020 and in the subsequent fifth set tiebreak.
His second serve is the first to disappear with double faults or slowly rolled in serves occurring in crucial moments, something that Alcaraz will take full advantage of.
Although I do strongly believe Alcaraz will win this match – as do the oddsmakers – I don't think it will be completely straightforward. I expect Zverev and his team to have found some adjustments from their meeting earlier this month and find a way to cause Alcaraz at least some difficulties.
Nonetheless, the kid is a winner, and he'll find a way through in this one.
Picks: Carlos Alcaraz wins, both players win a set (+122 via FanDuel)
