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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Juan Ignacio Londero Odds
| Alcaraz Odds | -10000 |
| Londero Odds | +2800 |
| Over/Under | 27.5 (-145/-110) |
| Time | 10 a.m. ET |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
The outcome of this match between Carlos Alcaraz and Juan Ignacio Londero is no secret.
This is one of the more lopsided tennis matches you will ever see, but that does not mean there is no betting value to be found.
Alcaraz is playing tennis as well as anyone in the world right now, and a non-top 100 opponent such as Londero is essentially a guaranteed win for him.
With titles in four of the seven tournaments he's played in throughout 2022, Alcaraz's eyes are on a much larger prize than just a first round victory over Londero.
However, a quick victory here will go a long way in keeping his endurance up and his confidence level high.
Let's jump into the match.
Londero Far Removed From Highest Level
Londero's career stats are rather mediocre. Over his 12-year professional career, his ATP & Grand Slam record is 35-47. In Londero's four career matches against top-10 opponents he is 0-4, failing to win a single set across all of them.
The most recent of these top-10 matches occurred in 2019, when he was ranked within the top 80. That's a level Londero is long removed from, as he has not been in the top 100 since May of 2021.
His ATP record in 2022 is 4-4, with only one of those wins coming against a top-100 opponent.
Alcaraz Looking to Open Up Title Run
What Alcaraz has done in 2022 is nothing short of amazing. Victories against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have all come within the last two months, and he's already one of the favorites for this event.
Alcaraz only has one match in 2022 against non top-100 opponents. This came against Alejandro Tabilo, and Alcaraz took care of business swiftly, winning 6-2 6-2 6-3.
That's very similar to how I see his match tomorrow going against Londero.
I would be very surprised if Alcaraz was broken a single time over the entire course of the match. He is winning 76% of his first serves on the ad-side and 67% of his first serves on the deuce side.
That rate should be more than enough to avoid getting into any real trouble against a far inferior opponent.
As far as Alcaraz's return games should look against Londero, it is very difficult to see Londero stringing together successful points.
Londero favors a serve through the middle of the service box, which should land right in Alcaraz's sweet spot. If Londero finds himself in long rallies with Alcaraz at the baseline, his inconsistencies will likely shine bright, and an unforced error on Londero's end is just as likely as a winner from Alcaraz.
Betting Value
It was difficult to find betting value on a match with a -10000 favorite, but I believe the best way to back the 19-year old prodigy in this first round matchup is with a unique wager.
The spread of -9.5 games is too steep for me, as an impressive showing of 6-3 6-3 6-3 would still not be enough to cover.
I'm avoiding the match total of 27.5 for a similar reason, as taking the under would rely an average of nine games or less per set, along with Alcaraz winning in straight sets. However, I wouldn't take the over either, as it's hard to see where Londero finds his game victories.
Instead, I'm going to take Alcaraz's game under of 18.5. This relies on Alcaraz limiting Londero to four games or less in every set, which he can do with just one break in each.
I see Alcaraz taking care of business in the first round of the tournament with ease, providing a good start to his third French Open campaign.
Pick: Alcaraz u18.5 games (-126 via FanDuel)
