Alcaraz vs Sinner Odds
| Alcaraz Odds | -170 |
| Sinner Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET | Tennis Channel |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the French Open, click here. | |
The first semifinal of the day on Friday in Paris should be an utterly captivating affair between two of the best tennis players in the world.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will meet for the 10th time in their professional careers, and over the course this rivalry — which dates all the way back to a 2019 ATP Challenger event — it's been the Spaniard who has come away with five wins.
Will Friday's match prove to be a favorable spot for Alcaraz as the odds would indicate, or will he be beaten by an ever-improving version of Sinner on clay?
Let's get into our Alcaraz vs Sinner French Open prediction for the men's semifinals on Friday.
Alcaraz Thriving After Injury Concerns
Entering the French Open, Alcaraz's health was called into question after withdrawing from Rome with a right arm injury. It was of particular concern given he's had some issues with it for the duration of his career and needs it to be at full health in order to produce the deadly pace on his forehand which has led him to two Grand Slam victories.
Well, it would appear there's no doubt about Alcaraz now. The World No. 3 has annihilated his forehand through five matches, dropping just one set en route to the semis and taking out a few quality opponents in recent rounds in Sebastian Korda, Felix Auger-Aliassime and the talented Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Alcaraz has done well to conserve energy with his quick wins, something he did not do a good job of in his victory at the US Open two years ago, but something which did help him find what was required to win Wimbledon last season. He's also featured a new service motion, which has really helped him shore up his one glaring weakness on the dirt.
The Spaniard has made a bad habit of failing to hold at a high rate on this surface over the last few years, but behind his new serve he's not only found it easier to win points behind his first offering — doing so at 73% or better over his last three matches — he's also landed 70% or more in all but one of his matches here which has unexpectedly created an Alexander Zverev-like look to his game.
Sinner Dominating Easier Tests
The Italian had some concerns of his own in the health department heading into this one, pulling out of Rome with what was deemed to be a pretty serious hip injury. Even Sinner himself wasn't sure how well he'd move on the courts, but after his last two wins over Corentin Moutet and Grigor Dimitrov there should be little doubt about his fitness at this point.
Sinner hasn't had to face nearly the level that Alcaraz has over the last couple of weeks, which could certainly create a shred of skepticism here, and that goes double when you consider this is the first time in his career that he's ever looked to be dominant on clay.
This has been decidedly the worst surface for Sinner over the last few seasons on account of the overwhelming power he packs from the back of the court. It's not going to play up as much on clay, but to this point in the season he's still managed to hit through players and utilize his drop shot to perfection.
Sinner's been even more devastating than Alcaraz behind his first serve at this tournament, but in an interesting twist he hasn't been able to land it with nearly the same kind of consistency. Given the serving stats have almost always dictated the result between these two, it'll be a storyline to watch.
Alcaraz vs Sinner Prediction
With so little between these two, this head-to-head has come down to surfaces over the past year and a half given that's been when both players have really been fully-formed tennis players. For Sinner, a man who likes to play in faster conditions, it should come as no surprise that the two matches he's won over Alcaraz since the start of last season came on the slick hard courts in Miami and Beijing. Alcaraz has won twice, too, and both of those wins have come at Indian Wells, a surface which closely resembles clay speed — and is actually slower than some clay courts despite being a hard court.
That already led me to Alcaraz in this meeting, given his overwhelming experience on the surface and his track record of winning. He's been the better of the two on dirt, and when the court speeds have been slow he's proven to be Sinner's kryptonite.
The serving stats here are pretty much gravy, but could lead this match to skew further in Alcaraz's favor than we'd initially anticipated. As I noted, holding serve on clay has long been a struggle for the Spaniard, even as recently as earlier this season, but behind his more compact motion he's not only been able to land more first serves but has won a large deal of points behind them.
Sinner has made great strides on clay, but stepping to arguably the best clay-courter in the world on Friday, he's going to be in for just a bit too much game to overcome.
