Alcaraz vs Djokovic Pick, Alcaraz – Djokovic Pick
| Alcaraz Odds | -145 |
| Djokovic Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 (-105/ -120) |
| Date | Sunday, 7/14 |
| Time | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings | |
We're in for a real treat on Sunday morning as Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic play a rematch of last year's dramatic Wimbledon final at the All England Club.
It was Alcaraz who overcame Djokovic 12 months ago in a thrilling fifth set to lift the trophy at Wimbledon for the first time in his career, and now he'll aim for his first title defense against the seven-time champion.
Djokovic wasn't even entirely sure he would play here at Wimbledon just a few weeks removed from surgery on his meniscus, yet he managed to march on to yet another Grand Slam final with very little issue. He's dropped just two sets over the course of the last two weeks and after some rest late in the week thanks to advancing on a walkover, he promises to be a tricky obstacle in Alcaraz's way.
Will we see Djokovic exact revenge and capture a 25th Grand Slam trophy on Sunday, or will Alcaraz have his number once again?
Here is my Alcaraz – Djokovic pick and prediction.
A Struggling Alcaraz is Still Good Enough
The Spaniard certainly hasn't brought his best level to this year's championships, but as it goes with the great players on tour, that hasn't stopped him from winning. In fact, he captured the title at Roland Garros just a week ago in spite of two poor matches to end the tournament. He's also moved past some quality opponents here at Wimbledon in Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul despite giving plenty of points away.
The Alcaraz serve, which has undergone a bit of a transformation this year as he moves to a platform delivery, has been volatile over the last couple of weeks. He only won 66% of points behind his first serve against a middling returner in Humbert to reach the quarters, then won a poor 53% of points behind it in the first set against Paul, before turning in a better showing versus Daniil Medvedev.
Even then, however, Alcaraz landed just 61% of them — a number which has dipped in each of his past three matches — and was only really able to win a high percentage given he continued to run the serve-and-volley to success against a player who has a very hard time defending it.
Alcaraz will need a better serving performance against Djokovic here, and he will also need to find a way to play a cleaner match. He hit a stunning 55 winners in his four-set win over Medvedev, but for a second straight match he allowed his unforced error count to creep up towards 40.
Djokovic is Looking for Revenge
It's hard to say Djokovic has been tested to the extreme here at Wimbledon, but it's equally as difficult to take issue with his play. He's been serving brilliantly and while he hasn't looked the fleetest on his feet, he's managed to chase down plenty of drop shots and scramble for points in long rallies.
Djokovic has now won almost 80% of his net points across the last three matches. As someone with great familiarity with Alcaraz, he should be more than capable of anticipating the drop shot and coming away on top in extended points. He notably struggled at the net against Alcaraz in last year's final, but in their most recent meeting held a 20-point advantage in the percentage of points won there.
The World No. 2 has now taken three of his last four matches against Alcaraz, discounting a loss in an exhibition last season. After falling to Alcaraz at Wimbledon, he played perhaps his best level in four or five years to knock him off in last year's Cincinnati final and moved past him in straight sets at the year-end tour finals.
Alcaraz – Djokovic Best Bets
Despite my weeks of concern regarding Djokovic's surgically-repaired knee, I'm forced to relent here. Ultimately, while he doesn't completely pass the eye test and is probably moving at 85%, Djokovic should still be more than capable of winning this match given the trends we've seen develop in this head-to-head.
Alcaraz put forth an excellent performance in last year's final, winning 70% of points behind his first serve for the match and making just five unforced errors in the final set. He's hardly looked like the same server in the last few weeks, and against the greatest returner the game has ever seen that's specific cause for concern.
Even at 85%, Djokovic has clearly executed his gameplan against Alcaraz in the past couple of seasons and has the defenses to break down Alcaraz mentally. I think he will win this match, and I'm also interested in backing him to win the first set.
Djokovic hasn't always been known to be a fast starter in big matches, but the one trend that really jumped out to me here is that Alcaraz has been at his worst in the first set over the last few matches — dropping it in three of the last four. Tallying up the totals across his last three first sets, he's made 38 unforced errors to 32 winners, and he's only limited the mistakes later on in his matches as he's moved in front.
You simply can't donate that many points to Djokovic, who is a master at giving nothing away to opponents. Given how Alcaraz has been starting his matches here at Wimbledon a repeat of last year's first set — which went 6-1 to Djokovic — could be in order.
