Alcaraz vs Paul Odds, Alcaraz – Paul Picks
| Alcaraz Odds | -430 |
| Paul Odds | +320 |
| Over/Under | 37.5 (-118 / -112) |
| Date | Tuesday, 7/9 |
| Time | 9:15 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN |
| Odds as of Monday afternoon via Fanduel | |
After a career-best run to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, Tommy Paul will now draw the dangerous Carlos Alcaraz as he makes a bid to extend his stay at the All England Club.
The World No. 3 may be one of the most difficult men in the world to defeat, especially here at Wimbledon where he hoisted the trophy last season, but Paul is uniquely positioned to give us a match worth watching with the way he's played Alcaraz over the last few years.
The American stands at 2-2 in his career against Alcaraz, and despite the fact that this is their first-ever meeting on grass, he's made some considerable strides on the surface over the past two seasons and is playing close to the level of his career.
Is it worth backing Paul to pull off the upset here? Let's get further into the Wimbledon quarterfinal below.
Here is my Alcaraz vs Paul preview along with my Alcaraz – Paulpick.
Alcaraz Winning Despite Imperfect Play
The Spaniard may have had very little experience on grass heading into last year's championships, but that didn't stop him from winning all 12 matches he played en route to a title at Queen's Club and his first-ever trophy at Wimbledon. The incredible force behind his groundstrokes coupled with his elite speed make him a weapon on a fast court, and he's done work to beef up his serve this season, which should only help his chances of defending the his title here.
That's not to say that it's been all roses for Alcaraz, however. He fell in the second round of Queen's Club this year to Jack Draper after allowing Francisco Cerundolo to hang around in the first round, and that came after two pretty shaky wins to take home the French Open a month ago. Yes, it's hard to knock his play given he won a Grand Slam trophy, but it's pretty evident he did so with less than his best.
So far at the tournament, he's once again looked like he's playing just beneath his A-level in dropping three sets over the course of his last two matches after playing pretty close matches against Alexander Vukic and qualifier Mark Lajal, two guys who he should be beating much easier than he did.
Paul Capable With Surface and Matchup
Paul's story also dates back to last year. After struggling to master grass courts for a few years, the American began to win on the surface with a trip to the Eastbourne final and a couple of victories at Wimbledon — results he'd use to further power what wound up being a career year for him.
This season, he's built off that newfound success on grass by winning all but one of his 11 matches on the surface entering play Tuesday, taking home the trophy at Queen's Club and defeating the likes of Alejandro Tabilo, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Lorenzo Musetti to do so.
While he doesn't have a natural grass court game with his big topspin forehand and lack of discernable pace, the number of wins on these courts against very accomplished and capable grass court players is hard to look past. What he lacks in the aforementioned categories he makes up for in spades with his all-world defensive skills and low, flat backhand.
Alcaraz – Paul Pick
These two have met four times, and Paul has not only stunned Alcaraz in two of those matches but has taken a set in three of the four encounters. There's been very little between them, and even in his straight-sets loss last year in Miami the score was pretty tight at 6-4, 6-4 to the three-time Slam champion.
Paul's defensive skills should pose some real issues for Alcaraz, who was able to survive in five sets against Frances Tiafoe thanks to a significant drop in level and again the following round thanks to a barrage of unforced errors from Ugo Humbert. In both matches, there were very real opportunities for Alcaraz's opposition to take control of the match — and Paul is the type who can capitalize on these moments as a player who gives very little away to his opponent.
It may not be the sharpest move to fully fade Alcaraz here, given he's seemed to find a way to win over the last month without his best stuff, but it would seem for all the world that Paul's unique ability to play him close with his incredible instincts and court coverage should once again be on full display given the form both men are in.
I think the number of games that Paul is being spotted is far too generous, and I'll pounce on this before the line moves further in his direction.
