Ruud vs. Cerundolo Odds
| Ruud Odds | -650 |
| Cerundolo Odds | +430 |
| Over/Under | 20.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
It may be April Fools' Day, but Francisco Cerundolo's run to the Miami Open semifinals in his first Masters 1000 main draw is no joke.
If that corny joke didn't do the trick for you, I'll add some more context to just how improbable the run of the 23-year old is before he squares up with one of the best players in the world, Casper Ruud.
Coming into this tournament, Cerundolo had played just 13 hard court matches at the tour level, and most of those came in qualifiers. Last week in Indian Wells, he lost in the first qualifying round to 17-year old Juncheng Shang.
The world No. 103 will leap all the way to 51 at a minimum, and a win against Ruud would push him into the top 50.
Ruud will perhaps be Cerundolo's toughest test of the week, even though he's gotten through some high-level hard court players in Gael Monfils and Francis Tiafoe. He also got by Reilly Opelka and Jannik Sinner, though both players retired due to injuries.
If you had bet Cerundolo in each of these matches at his moneyline price, you'd be a very happy bettor. Thus far on the week, Cerundolo's wins have come at approximate +190, +390, +380, +225 and +420 prices, though you'd be hard-pressed to find a book that would pay out the last match as Sinner retired before the conclusion of the first set.
Nonetheless, this has been a surprising if not shocking run, though one that has come as the result of impressive tennis from Cerundolo.
Ruud has had a landmark week of his own, however, registering the first win win of his career against Alexander Zverev and getting past world No. 12 Cameron Norrie en route to this semifinal.
The Norwegian has dropped just three service games on seven break points conceded through nine sets of play, utilizing his massive serve and forehand combination to secure a stranglehold on nearly each and every game he plays when he's at the line.
Another victory for Cerundolo would be the biggest upset of all, but does he have any chance of pulling off the stunner?
Betting Value
While Ruud comes into this match as a rightful heavy favorite, 4.5 games is a hefty number to be giving a player that has been as solid as Cerundolo this week.
The conditions are as ideal as a non-clay surface can be for Cerundolo, and he's taken full advantage. Perhaps it's the slower hard courts in Miami, or perhaps it's the lighter Dunlop balls that are in use, but Cerundolo has thrived by all metrics.
He's out-performing his career and season-long first serve won percentage on hard courts, second serve won percentage, first serve percentage, break rate and I could go on and on. Cerundolo has out-done his hard court Elo Rating that is nearly 400 points short of Ruud to a ridiculous level, and I can see him doing that again on Friday.
Cerundolo has actually done more damage behind his second serve than his first, a testament to the dictation he's had over groundstroke rallies throughout the week. While he has a similar game style to Ruud — without the service weapon — Cerundolo is only marginally weaker off of his forehand and backhand wings.
He has a 49% break rate on the week, so assuming Ruud will get through this match unscathed is a bold one, and just one break could be crucial in covering this spread.
At plus-money, I'm more than happy to back Cerundolo.
Pick: Francisco Cerundolo +4.5 games (+120 via Caesars)
