Daniel Evans vs. Arthur Rinderknech
| Evans Odds | -275 |
| Rinderknech Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 38.5 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Odds via Caesars. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Editor's Note: This match was deemed a walkover for Dan Evans due to Arthur Rinderknech's withdrawal due to injury.
One of the best matches of Day 4 at the Australian Open could come our way at 1573 Arena when Dan Evans does battle with rising Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech. Both men come into this one in great form, though Rinderknech had to work considerably harder to earn his first-round win.
Where does the value lie in this one? Let's take a good look.
Dan Evans on a Roll
Dan Evans has hit the ground running in 2022, rebounding after a flat end to the 2021 which saw him contract COVID, tweak his groin and lose a bundle of matches. He stands at 6-1 this season, taking down Jan-Lennard Struff, Denis Shapovalov and John Isner at the ATP Cup before reaching the semifinal in Sydney.
Evans looks rejuvenated, and he did well to come through what many thought could be a test in round one against a talented David Goffin. The Brit dropped just seven games in a straight-set win, hitting 23 winners to just 12 unforced errors. While he did get some help from Goffin, who made 36 unforced errors in the match, Evans did well to land 63% of his first serves and win 81% behind them. He also hit 10 aces.
Evans boasts a rather boring game, but he's incredibly effective with it. His slice backhand forces opponents to create their own power, and his volleying skills are sublime. While many of his points are constructed the same, he will test the rally tolerance and mental stamina of all his opponents, which means it can be particularly daunting when he lands so many serves in.
Rising Rinderknech
It's hard to be playing better tennis than Arthur Rinderknech right now. The Frenchman is 6-3 to start 2022, reaching the final in Adelaide last week where he fell to hometown hero Thanasi Kokkinakis. His first-round win came against another Aussie — Alexei Popyrin — and it was anything but easy.
Rinderknech needed five sets to outlast Popyrin, failing to capitalize on his two sets-to-one lead in the fourth. He did well to earn a break chance in the following game, and after picking up an early break in the fifth had to fight for another after Popyrin was able to break his serve. The point here is that this was quite a fight, and Rinderknech showed some serious heart and competitive spirit to come through the match.
He had an uncharacteristic leap into the air and a taunt of the pro-Popyrin crowd at the end of the match to top it all off.
The Frenchman landed 66% of his first serves throughout the match, but more importantly hit 72% in the fifth set. He never tired and was able to utilize his supreme power on the serve and forehand to perfection. He also answered the question of his return, breaking the above-average Popyrin serve five times in 10 tries.
Betting Value
I don't see much between these two, and think we should be in for a long fight. While the over is appealing, the number is rather high and there's certainly a world where it doesn't hit even in a four-set affair.
The safest way to play this match is by taking each player to win a set, which is priced very generously on Caesars. Rinderknech has only been defeated in straight sets once this year, which came against one of the best players in the world in Jannik Sinner.
Rinderknech should be able to hit through Evans early and create plenty of pace for himself, but I expect the Brit to problem-solve quickly and win some exchanges at the net. As I said earlier, handicapping a tight match I'd normally be inclined to take the games with the underdog or take the over, but this price is too good to pass up. I'd set this at -200, and other books are laying around -190 on this prop.
Pick: Both Players to Win a Set -150 (via Caesars)
