Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev
| Medvedev Odds | -170 |
| Zverev Odds | +138 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 |
| Time | Tuesday, 8 a.m. ET |
| Head-to-Head Record: 5-5 | |
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In a rematch of the semifinal that took place in Paris just over a week ago, Daniil Medvedev will take on Alexander Zverev in each player's second group stage match at the Nitto ATP Finals.
Both players got wins in their first matches at the event, but they took different paths in doing so.
Zverev nabbed a tight first set against Matteo Berrettini before the Italian was unfortunately forced to retire due to injury. Medvedev dropped his first set against Hubert Hurkacz but rallied back to win the match in three sets.
How does the pair's matchup project in such short time after meeting recently? Read on for betting analysis and a selection for the match.
Medvedev Showing Consistent High Level
It took him some time, but the world number two has shown recently that he'll be near the top of the rankings for a long time.
His form took a dip in the middle of the season as he dropped out of Wimbledon in the fourth round and wasn't able to medal in Tokyo, but he has since gone on a phenomenal run.
A title at the Toronto Masters was followed up by a first grand slam title in New York. Medvedev also went on to win each of his matches at the Laver Cup before falling in the final of the Paris Masters to Novak Djokovic.
Sustaining an elite level over the year and particularly in the latter stages of it has allowed Medvedev to secure his position at the top, and he'll be oozing with confidence at this stage. It won't hurt that he won the event last year either.
Medvedev also obliterated Zverev when the two met in Paris, winning 6-2 6-2 and putting up ridiculous statistics. In addition to winning 60% of the points behind his second serve, Medvedev won 67% of the points on Zverev's serve and an astounding 42% of the points on his first serve.
In theory, the slower courts of Paris should have aided Zverev's cause, but that did not prove to be the case.
Zverev Looking to Build on Strong Opening
Though the 7-6 (7) set that Zverev opened the tournament with against Berrettini may not seem particularly strong on its face, his performance was far better than the score suggests.
Taking the set against the Italian in his home country was impressive in and of itself, and, considering the way Berrettini served, Zverev's effort was even better. Berrettini made 83% of his first serves and with the cannon that he has, breaking is very difficult, but the German still managed to generate four chances in the first set. That bodes very well for Zverev.
A 5-5 head-to-head record against Medvedev should give Zverev the belief that he's more than capable of avenging his previous performance, and if he can continue to serve in the manner he did against Berrettini, he has a great chance at a second win.
Betting Pick
Despite the recent shellacking that Zverev was handed in France, I like his chances to battle well on Tuesday.
His performance against Medvedev has to be seen as an aberration rather than a representation of the matchup due to Zverev's form and the head-to-head record between the two, even though Medvedev has now won four in a row.
With the lightning fast courts in Turin, serving is at a premium, and Zverev is hitting his first serve as well as anyone on tour right now. He'll be comfortable rallying off of both wings and will be eager to show that his performance in Paris was just a fluke.
Rather than opt for the moneyline, however, you can offer yourself a bit of insurance with the game spread.
Alexander Zverev +2.5 -115
